The conservatism of KS has been a myth for a long time; Bob Dole did a lot to foster that notion.
I agree with your view. Kansas is a moderately conservative state. My former state of residence, Idaho, is a conservative state.
What makes for unpredictability here in Kansas is the uneasy truce between the economic conservatives and the social conservatives. A lot of economic conservatives are embarrassed by their social conservative colleagues and will jump ship to support a Democrat whose economic views are not too wacky because of the social issues. I think that backlash against social conservatism is what is hurting Brownback right now. Several economic conservatives that I know applaud some of Brownback's actions but are still very cool toward him because of his linkage to the social conservative wing of the party. I think that most of them are looking for any reason that they can find to vote against him. I think Brownback is facing a serious challenge this election.
IMO Roberts is still suffering from the residency issue which he handled poorly. While I believe that Roberts could be improved upon, I wasn't convinced that Milton Wolfe was the one to do it. He struck me as too much of an opportunist and as someone who was too much of a blank slate. I wasn't going to vote against Roberts unless it was for a clear improvement. IMO, Roberts should win the general election.
Agree. Plus in most places, the largest employer is the public school district. Almost all government school employees vote Democrat and parents, who believe for some reason that throwing more money at the schools will improve them, are all for more spending. It happens with bond issues, too. People are nuts.