It is somehow ignorant idea.
At first it ignores a fundamental difference between USSR and Russia.
True, energy exports are the largest exports for Russia and it contributes the most to the government revenues but government is not everything these days.
In USSR it was the opposite as far as there was a command economy and every single thing was a government-run.
Despite being the biggest earner for the government, energy sector is not higher than a fifth of total Russian economy.
Even if this sector would be hurt really bad, all they need is to cut some spending or increase taxation for other sectors.
Even if this sector would be hurt really bad, all they need is to cut some spending or increase taxation for other sectors.
...........
Yeah I’ve seen the data that Russia’s other sectors outside of oil are enjoying a Renaissance—though they’re not world class industries. I’ve seen too that the Russian oil sector like Mexico funds the Russian government.
I’m hoping that the price of oil will stay high for about 5 years because USA oil production in that time will likely increase another 5 million barrels @day & make the USA oil independent...but only if the PRICE of oil stays high.
A fall of the price of oil to 80@ barrel would likely cap US oil production at about 10 million barrels @ day. and leave the USA net oil importers.
10 years from now however the world will be very different. The rising change over to natural gas building trains trucks and buses plus electric cars is going to eventually erode significantly demand for oil so oil prices will collapse.
imho they’ll wind up at about the $35@ barrel range in current dollars.
imho there will never be a fracking revolution of size outside of the USA.