Sort of how back in 1973
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You’ve about got it right for the dating. History does not repeat but it does rhyme. We are currently imho, in a time reminiscent of the early 70’s. In 1970 US oil production peaked, not because there was no more oil in the ground but rather because the saudis had so much oil they could get it out of the ground for .25-.50@ barrel and ship it anywhere in the world for 1.25. That killed US oil production. When the saudis had cornered the market then they jacked up oil prices in 1973. Today, the demand for oil is so high and while OPEC’s share of world oil production is shrinking that US oil producers can bring more oil to market. But its expensive oil. In some places it costs 90@ barrel for each new barrel of oil. Even the best producers have costs in the 60-70 dollar range.
The big build out of US oil production will continue as long as oil prices remain above +-$90@ barrel. At $80@ barrel oil production stops rising.
I’m actually hoping that oil prices will remain high until about 2020. Because after that it will be a decline in US demand for oil that start to whittle down the price of oil.