If this disease was anywhere near as volatile as some people seem to think it is, What would you anticipate the per day new cases should look like?
Actually, that jump from ~12/day to ~23.5/day was over a period of about 3 weeks (first 3 weeks of July/14 to August 13/14)
If the disease were as volatile as some news stories suggest, I would expect it turn into an exponential rate of growth. As of now I don't see it. But we may also be looking at the near 0 value of squiggly lines (that's a technical term, BTW) typical to a an exponential rate curve that hasn't really blossomed yet.
The thing that disturbs me most is that the data published by the CDC is so obviously not true. The cases in their raw form are cumulative rates of infection of a given area, and the date the data point was finalized (typically 3-4 days before the data point is published). But that reporting has data where the cumulative total at some later date is lower than that value reported at an earlier date. That simply cannot happen and gives rise to negative rates of growth..
BTW, the data suggests that median mean mortality rate per infection is hovering around 45%.
I have not paid too much attention to the CDC data....I have attempted on a couple of occasions to make sense of it, but like you, I found it confusing..
I think the WHO data is better as a analysis tool, largely because it's made of media consumption and not for statisticians.
IMO, they claim often that better medical care on site, increases the likelihood for a patient to survive, but I don't buy it in it's totality. I think it helps at the margins however, so Unchecked, the disease would probably kill in the 70+ percent range, but with medical intervention it should be between 55 and 65% with the average or mean, based on previous outbreaks at 60%.
The last data set I looked at was from last weekend, and the death rates seemed to be approaching that number. or at least the deviation was not as big as it was, so I made a assumption that the outbreak was at it's worst and was beginning to turn the corner. But it will take a full months worth of data, IMO, to show this, if it is. I would expect it to achieve a sort of equilibrium first.
Anyway, that is what I am expecting, but all that could obviously change, should we get a jump into another region.