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To: RinaseaofDs
You can see the Reuters report HERE. 128 new cases and 56 days in the two days of Aug. 10 and 11. That works out to 64 cases per day and 28 deaths per day.
50 posted on 08/15/2014 11:00:35 AM PDT by PJ-Comix (Charlie Crist (D-Green Iguana))
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To: PJ-Comix

OK, cool.

Same numbers I have. I’ve been averaging back to May 23. WHO/CDC reported numbers on May 14 and May 23 (9 days with no report?)

The inflection point was somewhere in there.

Between Apr2 and May 14, there were 0.61 deaths per day and only 9 people infected per day, on average.

Now we’re up to 21 infected per day, average, and 11 dead.

Now everyone is admitting the numbers could be off by at least a factor of 2, and as much as a factor of 4.

Thanks for replying. I just want to make sure there isn’t a better source of data out there.

Even with the cases referenced in the Reuters article, the actual data, averaging back to May 23, is more like 21/day infected.

The deaths number is somewhat interesting, but it’s the cases number that is the important one here.

Nobody is mentioning an R0 at this point - a basic reproduction rate that would indicate a) whether it will burn itself out, or b) how long it would take to spread through a population.


52 posted on 08/15/2014 6:33:37 PM PDT by RinaseaofDs
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