Well since ebola has been around for a long damn time and in the past 30 years only about 1800 deaths have been attributed to it I would guess Ro < 1. So relax and forget about banishing your fellow countrymen to third world medicine after risking their lives to save people.
You are guessing the R0 of Ebola Guinea is less than 1. You guess?
Graph of identified cases is exponential and going ballistic, which leads me to believe (not evidence, mind you) that the R naught is greater than 1.
Further evidence would be the fact that last week the disease was spread by infected patients from two countries to a known five this week.
The way they generally come by an R naught is to look at the trend in reported cases, estimate an R naught, wait a week, and then see if the new cases number falls on your projection curve.
From there, if you have a vaccine, then you can use (1-1/R0) to determine the ratio of uninfected people to infected people you have to vaccinate in order to stop the infection.
So, the idea from here is to use math, not emotion, to figure out what needs to happen next.
If the case numbers continue to fit whatever projection curve somebody has generated at WHO or CDC, they will have to start getting serious about sealing borders and keeping infected patients within those borders.
There’s no vaccine for Ebola, you see, and since this one - this mutation - has a 21 day incubation period and may/may not be transmittable as an aerosol, you have to use your head here. This was the point of her article.
As a post script, I would think the nightmare scenario is a disease like Ebola infecting pilgrims to Mecca.
The Saudis obviously have some adults at work at their MOH, and I would expect, if cases end up being identified in pilgrims to Mecca itself, that they will seal the border completely in both directions.
They will keep infected patients within SA until they expire or get better. If they get better, then they will ask them to participate in a vaccine development effort. Even if they DO get better they will be required to stay until their body fluids are clear of active virus.
Infected patients can transmit Ebola Zaire through their semen, for example, for up to six or seven weeks after infection.
Ebola Guinea may be different. Zaire is Guinea’s progenitor, and a ‘sister’ to Gabon and Congo.
So, Ann’s fears are not misplaced. You just don’t go diving into Ebola as a missionary. If that’s what you want to do, then make the decision that SHOULD YOU GET THE BUG you are going to do the ONLY HUMANITARIAN THING and deal with it in situ and not bring it home - UNLESS YOU AGREE TO BE A DRUG TEST PATIENT. That’s what Brantley and Writebol agreed to.
Still, they should be going through observation and testing THEIR not here. Bringing them back here was stupid and an unnecessary risk.