[Covenantor]

You state that you worked with dangerous pathogens before.

Could you explain your 56% mortality rate please. Are you using total number of cases reported which includes all those suspected of having contracted Ebola and lab verified cases?

Using only the verifiable lab cases, a smaller number and total deaths one comes up with a number in the mid and high 80 % range, consistent with the upper range for the ZEbola.

[LambSlave]

I’m not doing this professionally, just out of curiousity. Yes, I was using the suspected cases rather than lab confirmed, since earlier in the outbreak it was necessary due to small sample size. Of course there is the error that you are getting some cases of lassa (and others) thrown in the mix, but from what I recall from WHO’s methodology, suspected means Ebola as the primary diagnosis so it seems reasonable. I haven’t run the numbers for confirmed cases, but if it is that much difference then the cause for the disparity would need to be nailed down.

[BuckeyeTexan]

http://www.afro.who.int/en/clusters-a-programmes/dpc/epidemic-a-pandemic-alert-and-response/outbreak-news/4239-ebola-virus-disease-west-africa-4-august-2014.html

The mortality rate in West Africa as of yesterday is 55.3% of confirmed, probable, and suspect cases. (887 of 1603)

[LambSlave]

comes up with a number in the mid and high 80 % range

You (incorrectly) assumed that the reported deaths are only those resulting from confirmed cases to get the 80%+ figure; this is NOT the case. You would have to find a data source for deaths only in the confirmed cases, I have not seen this data published by WHO or CDC. I stand by my assertion that the ~56% rate is correct for this outbreak, unless someone can show me a breakdown of the subset of deaths for confirmed cases vs all suspected cases.