>> He wouldn’t need to have vomited on everyone. Apparently coughing or sneezing in an enclosed area can spread it as well. <<
OK, let’s play your game. I withdraw my previous assumptions and accept your new one.
But then I’m now free to assume further that Dr. Brantly, as an expert on Ebola, told a stewardess to notify the pilot that he should radio ahead with a message to CDC in Atlanta, saying that Brantly was coughing and sneezing, with the result that all passengers had now probably been exposed to Ebola.
Upon getting that news, CDC staff tell their counterparts at FAA and TSA, who in turn order the plane to land ASAP in Atlanta, with an immediate quarantine being imposed on everybody aboard. Again, pandemic nipped in the bud.
I don’t play games.
Research has shown that it’s transmitted far more easily than just ‘contact with bodily fluids’ like HIV.
It has a 21 day latency period.
Tests for it even in symptomatic patients are frequently negative early on. In spite of the fact that they’re already symptomatic spreaders.
No one will quarantine anyone. Business and commerce is too important. That usually works out for societies.
Until it doesn’t.
The early lack of important action by governments in West Africa was due to this. They didn’t want the western corporations that they depend on for their livelihood to evacuate workers and cause problems with commerce. So important quarantine and travel restrictions weren’t put in place. Now the region is a nightmare zone.
We’ll see what happens with us when it comes here.
And Brantly wasn’t an ‘expert’ on Ebola. He was a GP family doctor who was drafted to care for patients in a clinic near where his normal work was done. He was, though, a western trained doctor that was fully aware of barrier methods and universal precautions. In spite of this he contracted the disease.
If you look at the graph of infections versus date near the bottom on this page:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_West_Africa_Ebola_outbreak
You’ll see that the field clinics (mainly MSF) had this thing pretty much under control in early May. New cases were close to zero or zero per day.
Then, in mid/late May ‘something’ changed. And appears to have changed in all affected regions. What that ‘something’ is is anyone’s guess. My guess is mosquito vector transmission. That time corresponds to roughly the period of time from onset of rainy season to hatching of first generation of mosquitos. Add in a week to 10 days for symptom onset and you have roughly the time when the infection numbers go exponential.