FReepers claiming the numbers are rigged (and last quartr was spot on): EXPECTED!
(BTW I said after last quarter that 2QGDP would be >3% :-)
As for professional analysis, here is Stone McCarthy:
Stone & McCarthy (Princeton) - This update contains our first impressions of the release of the U.S. GDP data. A full analysis will be available later as a separate update.
The BEA’s advance estimate of real GDP growth for Q2 2014 GDP growth was reported at 4.0% SAAR. The Q2 growth rate follows a 2.1% drop in real GDP in Q1 (previously -2.9%). The Q2 results were much stronger than expected. Consumer spending was firm, particularly for durable goods.
Non-residential fixed investment and exports also contributed to the gain.
Note: Previously reported data have been revised. The data incorporated in today’s report reflects the regular annual revision of the national income and product accounts (NIPAs), beginning with the estimates for the first quarter of 1999. Annual revisions, which are usually released in July, incorporate source data that are more complete, more detailed, and otherwise more reliable than those previously available.
Our estimate of 2.3% GDP growth compared with the median consensus of 3.0%. Market estimates ranged from 1.9% to 5.2%.
The FOMC is likely to regard the second quarter rise as a rebound from the soft first quarter. In the near-term it should not change the Committee’s overall outlook for winding down the asset purchase program, or advance the timing of the first hike in the fed funds rate.
Real PCE was strong, rising 2.5% in Q2 versus 1.2% in Q1. In particular, PCE for goods rose by 6.2% SAAR versus 1.0% in Q1. However, PCE for services was 0.7%, down from +1.3% in Q1. The contribution to GDP from PCE was 1.38% versus our estimate of 1.1%.
Nonresidential fixed investment rose 5.5% versus +1.6% in Q1. Particularly, spending on structures rose 5.3%, up from +2.9% in Q1.
The contribution to GDP from inventories was +1.0% versus -1.7% in Q1 and 0.02% in Q4. We were expecting inventories to contribute 1.0% to GDP.
Net exports made a negative contribution of 0.10% to GDP which was as we expected.
The GDP price index rose at a 2.0% SAAR versus 1.3% in Q2 and 1.5% in Q1 2014
Gary Shilling says the number is closer to 1%. There has been a very flat Core Capex.