Posted on 07/29/2014 8:22:41 AM PDT by SovereignSociety
Central bankers think they can keep their economy going by artificial stimulus until they hit escape velocity and grow at normal rates again — but they’re wrong.
Here at Dent Research we hold a different view to what drives the economy.
And central bankers are in for three big surprises ahead.
Their economies are NOT going to grow the way they’re hoping, at least not until the early 2020s, thanks to declining demographic cycles and unprecedented debt ratios.
But the surprises I’m talking about are going to come out of left field and slam unexpectedly and so fast into these delusional central banks, that it will leave their heads spinning.
I’m talking about:
• Germany.
• China.
• And the good ol’ U.S. of A.
Between now and 2022, Germany is going right over the edge of a demographic cliff steeper than the one Japan crumbled over in the 1990s. Back then, I was one of the very few who saw the demographic-trend-driven crisis ahead for Japan. Once again, I’m one of very few who sees what Germany faces.
The country is supposed to be the largest and most fiscally sound economy holding up the euro zone. So tell me: How is it going to continue its support of the weaker southern countries when its own economy stalls? It’s not, of course, and the fall out will crush Europe.
In the East, China has inflated a massive infrastructure bubble that its top-down, centrally-planned government has supported with unprecedented stimulus. That bubble is already starting to show signs of cracking. When it bursts, there will be little the People’s Bank of China, or any other central bank for that matter, can do to fight the tsunami.
Mark my words here: Real estate around the world will collapse like dominoes.
Then there’s the U.S. economy. It’s not going to accelerate back into healthy growth, like the desperate Fed hopes. Instead, it’s going to begin slowing again by early 2015, if not sooner. We have a second demographic cliff in the U.S. to thank for this.
Take a look at this chart. It shows how spending in the U.S. peaks at age 46, a fact that correlates with the general economy and stock markets (as my Spending Wave shows).
Averaging the Consumer Expenditure Survey over 10 years gives us more detailed data…
What this chart shows is that we get the most rapid increase in spending between the time the average person enters the workforce at age 20 and age 39, when they’re buying their biggest homes (I’m averaging here). That happened into 2000.
Then spending moves up more slowly and peaks at age 46, in line with furnishing those homes and getting kids through high school. That happened in 2007.
But spending continues to meander sideways into age 53, when the most affluent peak in their spending. They reach their top a little later than the average person because they went to school for longer, had their kids later, and sent them to school later than the rest. And that’s what will happen next.
And on cue, the economy and stocks first peaked and slowed in 2000, with the housing and tech bubble. They peaked again into 2007 when the larger generation hit its peak in spending.
Now it will peak again. Stocks markets will hit higher highs, despite lower economic growth — until late this year, when spending peaks for the last affluent baby boomers.
This last, artificial recovery and peak is courtesy of the Fed’s endless free money.
Now, the top 20% may seem inconsequential, but they control over 50% of spending. The top 1% control 20% of spending and 50% of wealth. This makes them anything but “inconsequential.” In fact, it’s this most affluent sector that owns most of the financial assets that the Fed’s bubbling up again.
Unfortunately, this affluent sector will undergo a decline in spending by next year, just like most households did after late 2007. As a result, the automobile sector — which also peaks at age 53 — will collapse, much like housing did many years before it, and the latest subprime build-up we’ve witnessed will cause pain as well.
Incredibly, this market continues to bubble up, despite increasingly bad geopolitical news (which is in line with the down leg of our cycle, from 2001 to 2019). Investors are more convinced than ever that the Fed can keep the economy going.
But the economy has already grown at a slower pace than economists and the Fed have expected, despite unprecedented stimulus.
Well, duh! If you understand anything about demographics and debt, that shouldn’t surprise you.
Now the Fed is finally tapering toward zero QE by October or so, just as an even bigger demographic cliff hits the U.S.! Talk about bad timing.
The thing is, the Fed doesn’t reverse its policies on a dime because that would make it look rash or irresponsible (like unprecedented money printing for over five years isn’t irresponsible!).
Besides, thanks to a lag in data, it takes the Fed a while to realize the economy is worse than it is. So I think the Fed will be behind the curve with this next downturn, just as it was in the 2008 demographic slowdown and subprime crisis.
That’s why I think the next big stock crash will start its first dramatic leg down between late 2014 and early 2015. Then the Fed will stimulate again…
Only, the next time, it’ll have much less credibility and the adverse demographic trends in the U.S., in Europe and in China will be much more powerful.
In short, make sure you’re ready. It’s going to be a rough ride ahead.
Harry
No doubt, could happen. However, history indicates that financial markets do better in the year before a Presidential election.
It could be wishful thinking on my part. I'm planning to sell my house in two years, when my youngest starts HS. I want to live closer to church and the HS, and downsize a bit. I figure that's the only way my older kids will leave the nest (they're 25 & 27). I don't fight it, as their mom likes having them around. After nearly 30 years of marriage, I've learned to choose my battles...very...carefully. lol
“I figure that’s the only way my older kids will leave the nest (they’re 25 & 27). I don’t fight it, as their mom likes having them around.”
My wife is the same with our teenagers (most of the time!) Although I hope they can get decent jobs after college and get out on their own. I use recent college grads on a part-time basis. It is sad to see these responsible, smart, educated and hardworking “kids” that can’t find decent work in their field (earth sciences). Don’t tell me the “economy is doing better”. The only reason Obama can say that is because of the feds printing money and inflating stock prices.
I have mentioned to them to try out the oil fields in Nouth Dakota, but that is a long ways away from friends and family, and prices are sky high there. (I met a guy on an airplane that commuted for his seven days on/seven days off oil rig rotation from Alaska to North Dakota! Too expensive to live in N. Dakota compared even to Alaska!)
Yup. The reason USG does not care what USAians want: to them the USA *money*from*thin*air* financial system _must_ survive at _any_ cost. Law and USAians lawful inalieable rights, prosperity, even groves of USAians very survival, are way down the priority list. I’m quite serious.
You can’t say “IT’LL NEVER HAPPEN HERE”. Because in the 30’s, That was the first thing FDR did, as soon as he took office. Every body had to turn in all their GOLD & SILVER and the government decided what price they would pay for it. As it was, gold was pegged at $20/oz, and silver was pegged at $1.00/oz. There is nothing in the world that can stop them.
I never said ‘it can't happen here’ (gov’t confiscation of gold and silver). Nor did I suggest that it has never happened in America before.
What I was responding to was that person who actually did say it could happen here, and soon. And (based on the possibility that we'd all have to give it up anyway) maybe that's why the PM dealers are so willing to sell to us for what could soon be worthless dollars.
There are people that own PM’s that the gov’t knows nothing about. I know several(I wish I was one). How will they confiscate something that they know nothing about?
Ready as I can be ...Harry
Need to buy some more vegetable seeds....stock some fuel..
The beneficiaries who don't get what they expect, will buy a bunch of matches.
This will happen in every socialist country, including ours.
Smoke’em if you got’em, we are in a relatively short break.
They "may" know, they may not...regardless, anyone with half a brain who has PM's in their possession surely isn't stupid enough to keep them around for the feds to come looking for and there are absolutely no "reporting" requirements with regards to having sold or otherwise "donated" the PM's to others.
Let the feckless bastards come...I'm sick of being told to fear those government pieces of excrement for this and for that...it's back asswards the way this country is going.
Time for a stand...let them seek mercy at the hands of the populace they've intimidated and run roughshod over...oh, sorry, I'm fresh out.
Now would be the time for the World to begin big Ag, or else. Food and energy will stave off a massive world war.
Land, with healthy dirt to grow food.
Well...talking about investments, I am out..
In cash..
Hope to sell off most of my property sometime next year as well.
I think the market has topped, and we should trade sideways until their is a catalyst. But I don’t see anything good.
But that’s just me...
From the article:
"Mark my words here: Real estate around the world will collapse like dominoes."
So, I guess we shouldn't buy land until after the real estate crash. In the meantime, North Korea seems to be the only safe haven. It will be protected by its isolation from the "central bankers."
In cash..
Well, that's known as investing in the dollar.
Unfortunately, there's no way to avoid investing (other than just giving everything away). Wealth must be held in some form. You're just investing in the dollar. If the value of everything else collapses (relative to the dollar), the dollar will be a good bet.
Sure.....but at least I have salvaged what I could before I lose it.. I plan to not invest but to use a lot of that cash for things I expect that I will need at a time when these things will not be available.
In a way, I suppose one could view that as a investment.
A little bit of construction equipment, some fuel storage tanks, some agricultural stuff, for maximum yield in small spaces. A travel trailer, a 4 wheel drive with winch. Some solar equipment, communications gear.
I already have the land and the place. Been working on it for a couple years now. buying stuff when I can find it at a bargain.
In short I plan to be self sufficient if necessary. If not necessary it will be just another bunch of hobbies.
But I can’t risk any of that in a market I no longer trust or believe in. After 2008, Some Chinese frauds took me for a ride in 2011-2012. I made most of that back and got out, just in time to see a bunch more go into the tank and delist.
Since I do not play short of do options, the market is not a place for me. Some thrive, but I don’t..
Yes, the fed has destroyed the saver. I know that.
Don’t plan to save all of it.
I’m not only talking about this government confiscation of the gold and silver privately owned by our citizens. I’m also talking about FEDERALIZING all IRAs. (THIS IS ALREADY ON THE BOOKS) and all the feds have to is is make it a “LAW”. As a matter of fact BILL CLINTON tried to do this, during his tenure as POTUS. Only his plan was to federalize all IRAs for a couple of years. His plan was to confiscate all IRAs “SAVINGS” for a couple of years, to balance his budget. The people that had their money confiscated were to be paid, like the Social Security 2% to 3%, when they retired. (JUST LOOK IT UP). With all that money in the IRA savings account, approximately 10 to 15 trillion, they can pay off most of the debt. The people can then be paid, like Social Security, at 3% to 5% upon retirement, plus their Social Security. THAT’S ALREADY ON THE BOOKS, all they have to do is make it into law
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.