E-commerce is up BT the vast majority of UPS shipments are commercial not resi. Combine that with increases in NDA, International export package and freight forwarding and LTL. It’s a far far more complex story that just e-commerce.
(Full disclosure - I worked for UPS for 8 years in Supply Chain and Corporate office)
Yay UPS! It’s at the point that the UPS driver and I chat. We’ve had the same driver on our route for years now. Good guy. I probably do half my department-type shopping via internet and UPS.
In any case, growth will be less than 2% and I’m thinking the 3rd adjustment will have it at .5% or so. Businesses retooling and restocking is not commerce. It’s killing time while little is happening.
With 3/4 of the newly employed for years now making minimum wage in part-time jobs, there isn’t a lot of spending going on.
The balance of trade is on your side, though, with decreased oil imports. That should mean we aren’t subtracting as much on that negative balance.