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To: Wyatt's Torch

Prior to the numbers being released first quarter, the talking heads all said it would be slight growth.

I’m betting on <2%, and I’m betting on the adjustments having it end up at .5% or so. I don’t see growth (gut feel), and I think ObamaCare is still causing a huge hesitancy.


10 posted on 07/28/2014 12:07:45 PM PDT by xzins ( Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for victory!)
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To: xzins

My guess is the headline number on Wednesday will be +3.0% - ultimately revised down to +2.3%. The jobs numbers the last 3 months point to >3% growth.


11 posted on 07/28/2014 12:47:09 PM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: xzins

Crazy Germans... ;-)

Deutsche Bank Strays From The Wall Street Heard And Predicts A Massive GDP Report

On Wednesday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its first estimate of Q2 GDP.

The average economist on Wall Street is looking for 3.0% growth, after the 2.9% drop in Q1. Citi, Barclays, Nomura, Goldman Sachs, and UBS are among the big names forecasting between 2.9% and 3.1% growth.

Deutsche Bank’s Joe LaVorgna is sticking his neck out, predicting the figure will come in at 4.2%.

In a new note, the LaVorgna explains why there’s a good chance that estimate will prove low: it assumes a conservative rate of productivity.

Productivity is defined as GDP over hours worked. Recent data suggests Q2 hours climbed at a 3.8% annualized rate. Assuming a 4.2% GDP rate, we get productivity growth of 0.4%. But major declines in productivity are often followed by a snapback the following quarter. And data show productivity fell 5.8% in Q1. That could yet be revised even lower.


15 posted on 07/29/2014 1:47:36 PM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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