Not rocket science here.
The party out of power usually makes gains in midterm elections.
This is especially pronounced in the 6th year of an incumbent administration if you examine the historical patterns.
The Dems are especially vulnerable this year defending US Senate seats in states carried by McCain and MR, states where BHO’s poll ratings are even lower than average.
Also, in terms of demographics, midterm elections tend to be more favorable to the GOP than is usually the case in presidential elections.
The items you cite in part explain why Obama is fundraising so obsessively. Someone tipped him off that Nov. might well be the mother of all losses for Dems. Worse, from his POV, he might finally be blamed. So he is frenetically, frantically trying to raise sufficient cash to avert such a Dem. catastrophe.
His biggest problem is that he looks more and more like a loser. Given the various scandals here & the rising global unrest, it’s not going to get better. Evidently the donors are still willing to shell out, but rank and file voters are getting sick of Obama, his golfing & vacationing, & his incompetence. Nov. will likely be as bad as they fear.