I respect your input, and I agree with your statement that the effects are "uncertain" from such a raise in the minimum wage. Specific effects, yes, but the general effects are well-known. My intuition and logic tell me that it's not an experiment I want to attempt.
Yes it does. It's a simplified argument that also ignores that if there is a change in total wages, that money came from somewhere, and is presumably a drain on investment capital, that could have been invested elsewhere.
You're right that there is a negative multiplier for increased costs and taxes. I think the inflation effects will only negate the positive impact in part. At least in the short run.
But I really think the biggest danger is raising it without restoring the import tariffs. That's telling Joe that his labor costs are mandated to go up 30% but his off-shore competitor Chang still gets to compete in Joe's market with labor costing 1/10th the old cost and faces no increase whatsoever.
Yes it does. It's a simplified argument that also ignores that if there is a change in total wages, that money came from somewhere, and is presumably a drain on investment capital, that could have been invested elsewhere.
You're right that there is a negative multiplier for increased costs and taxes. I think the inflation effects will only negate the positive impact in part. At least in the short run.
But I really think the biggest danger is raising it without restoring the import tariffs. That's telling Joe that his labor costs are mandated to go up 30% but his off-shore competitor Chang still gets to compete in Joe's market with labor costing 1/10th the old cost and faces no increase whatsoever.