Photo credit: BP.
Posted on 06/22/2014 10:52:21 AM PDT by ckilmer
June 22, 2014 |
Photo credit: BP.
BP (NYSE: BP ) has provided an intriguing update to its global oil reserves estimate in the company's latest yearly review of energy statistics. BP raised its reserve estimate by 1.1% to 1,687.9 billion barrels, which is enough oil to last the world 53.3 years at the current production rates. However, there's likely a lot more oil left in the tank beyond what BP sees today.
America's energy boom surges
A good portion of the growth in global oil reserves in BP's report comes from the United States. According to BP, the U.S. has 44.2 billion barrels of oil reserves, which is 26% higher than it previously thought. It's also quite a bit more optimistic than the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which recently increased its estimate to 33.4 billion barrels of reserves, or 15% more than previously thought.
The overall cause for that surge in oil reserves is that America's shale oil plays -- the Bakken, Eagle Ford and Permian Basin -- are now being unlocked through horizontal drilling technology.
Despite the big boost in reserves over the past year, there appears to be much more oil potential in each shale play, with the Permian Basin really standing out.
Source: Pioneer Natural Resources Investor Presentation.
As that slide points out, Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE: PXD ) now estimates the Spraberry/Wolfcamp shale formations in the Permian Basin contain 75 billion barrels of recoverable oil and gas. That number is actually a major upward revision from last year when Pioneer estimated the two formations held 50 billion barrels of recoverable oil and gas.
These Permian Basin plays now make the Eagle Ford and Bakken shales look small in comparison. Yet the recoverable reserve estimates of both of those shale plays also continue to grow. In the four years since EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG ) began developing the Eagle Ford shale it has drastically revised its reserve estimates. The company now believes it will recover 3.2 billion barrels of oil equivalent on its land position, which is up from less than 1 billion barrels in 2010. New technologies and techniques, including closer spacing of wells, are providing a big boost to future reserve estimates.
Source: EOG Resources Investor Presentation (link opens a PDF).
Next up for America
As those three plays do all the current heavy lifting to grow reserves, new oil plays continue to emerge. The two most promising appear to be the Tuscaloosa Marine shale in the Gulf Coast region and several shale plays in the Rockies. EOG Resources this year unveiled four new horizontal oil discoveries in the Rockies, proving yet again that America's energy boom is just getting started.
EOG Resources estimates that it will ultimately recover about 400 million barrels of oil equivalent as it develops its acreage in the Rockies. However, keeping in mind the company's nearly fourfold boost to its estimated recovery figure in the Eagle Ford shale, it's likely there is a lot more upside in the Rockies as EOG Resources and others develop the oil rich shales in the region.
While the world as BP sees it might just hold 53.3 years' worth of oil, that certainly does not mean we'll run out of oil anytime soon. New shale plays continue to be discovered in the U.S., which should fuel substantial gains in reserves over the next decade. There's plenty of oil still left in the world's tank thanks to the development of America's shale resources.
Used to be once a week before retirement. Now it’s about once a month, sometimes longer.
Ah, an oasis, though slowly turning mirage.
But I think - even fossil laden - there’s a hell of a lot more down there yet.
Jimmah Arter was dead certain we’d be totally out of oil in 2000. He was dead wrong.
Oil and the origins of the ‘War to make the world safe for Democracy’
The “fool.com” quite often publishes something, which indicates that their name is to be taken literally, not ironically.
Gonna run out of oil, eh?
When pig learn to fly, then bacon will be sky high.
And wing shooters will start using buckshot.
Didn’t the original ‘peak oil’ lie have us running out of oil last year?
Speculators pumping and dumping again.
Got to keep that price up there.
Do the same with a stock and go to jail.
Yeah, but rocks have oil in them sometimes.
It is 53.75 years. I remember because it was 53.75 years ago that it was predicted we would run out of oil just before St. Swithin's Day.
Why can't one politico just come out and say,
That, BTW, is George Bush's Fault. When we elected an "oil man," the very least I was expecting was a sane oil policy. Instead, he fluffs it off, and we get a homosexual Kenyan and a gang of Greenies throttling our economy. These queers and environmentalists think it is people who pollute Mother Gaia (except for illegal aliens and Third Worlders, of course), do not want us driving personal vehicles, or eating meat, and somehow have the power to make us suffer.
Oil? Saudi Arabia alone could supply world needs for the next 53.75 years. Easy. There is no "oil shortage." What there is is oil price-fixing. Saudi Arabia et al in OPEC are simply selling something that costs them $10/barrel to produce for $100+/barrel. Not to worry, our oilco boys are in on it with them.
“Gulf oil were drilling wells all over OK and TX from the 80’s well into
the 90’s. Many people working those fields told me outright that the wells
were being found and capped for no apparent reason and they didn’t understand it.”
Horse Spit!
Gulf was one of my biggest customers back then.
Why should I believe the doomsday figures now, when 20 years ago we should all have been living in caves and getting our light from olive oil lanterns?
I figure if I live another 53.3 years we should have another 100 years of oil left.
My calculations show 53.4 years. I’m not exactly old and not exactly young but I’ve been hearing these predictions about everything since I can remember all the way back to kindergarten. In my short 42 years on this planet there must have been dozens of calamities that would kill us all. Over populations, acid rain, aerosol hair spray, R12 ozone holes, no oil, global cooling, mini ice age, global warming......on and on... And the most sinister is the dumping of industrial grade dihydrogen monoxide in to our water supplies by evil corporations.
They were saying 25 years back in 1974 when I was I. HS
I may have 10 years left so I don’t care.
I’ve been learning to sail. And the internal combustion engine was never going to be as fuel-efficient as farm animals like oxen.
agree. the interesting parts of the article are not the headline but rather the caveats. Like estimates for the Permian basin for recoverable oil have gone up by 25 billion barrels in the last year.
We'll use Fairy gas.
Obama is creating them by the thousands.
cute but wrong
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.