The GOP Leadership Scramble

Politico ^ | 6/10 | Lauren French, John Bresnahan

[nickcarraway]

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s stunning loss to his tea party challenger on Tuesday will create the biggest disruption for GOP lawmakers since the departure of Tom DeLay eight years ago, and throws open the question of who will be the next speaker after John Boehner leaves.

It’s unclear how long Boehner plans to stay on, or whether Cantor’s defeat will alter the Ohio Republican’s thinking on his own future. There has been speculation for months that Boehner could step down after Election Day, or before the end of the next Congress, with Cantor in place as his certain successor.

Now, with Cantor’s shocking defeat, the GOP succession question for the “after Boehner” period is wide open, and Republicans will spend at least the next five months jockeying for a newly open spot at the leadership table.

Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy, the current No. 3 in the House, is all but certain to run for the majority leader post, GOP sources said. McCarthy’s office declined to comment on Cantor’s loss or McCarthy’s plans.

But the California Republican likely will be challenged by a member of the conservative wing of the House GOP Conference, potentially including Reps. Jeb Hensarling of Texas, Jim Jordan of Ohio or Cathy McMorris Rodgers of Washington.

And a full-scale war will break out for majority whip, with Scalise, McMorris Rodgers and Reps. Pete Roskam (R-Ill.) and Pete Sessions (R-Texas) all possibilities for that post.

Roskam had already started unofficially running for whip, if the job came open. A GOP aide said Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.) decided to officially seek the whip job after receiving a number of calls Tuesday night from conservatives in the party urging him to run after Cantor lost. GOP Rep. Paul Ryan is next in line for the Ways and Means Committee gavel and has said he wasn’t running for leadership, a stance he may now have to rethink.

Other leadership hopefuls could also emerge, especially among freshmen or sophomore members, although some of the most visible members those classes are running for Senate, leaving Congress or have other roles at this time. This group includes Reps. Jim Lankford (R-Okla.), who is running for Senate; Cory Gardner (R-Colo.), another Senate hopeful; Tim Griffin (R-Ark.); and Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.), who is chairing the Benghazi select committee.

Yet Cantor’s pending disappearance from the top Republican ranks, coupled with questions over Boehner’s future, mean this leadership scramble could decide who runs the GOP Conference for the next decade, similar to how the Boehner-Roy Blunt battle to replace Tom DeLay played out in 2006.

Boehner, of course, won that fight and eventually became speaker when Republicans took back the House in 2010. For those Republicans eyeing leadership runs, the lessons from that fight could tempt them to go for the brass ring now, or risk losing out to a more ambitious rival and facing long-term fallout.

“You’ve seen the shadow campaigns … that get talked about all the time but then [members] deny it,” said a former Republican leadership staffer.

“Tomorrow, you’re going to start hearing that people are seriously considering a run. It will be blown up. By the end of the week, we’re going to see who is interested and who is not.”

“This flushes out the Hensarlings and the Jordans. If they say they are not interested, then they are not interested and the conference has to move on. It’s important to make sure the conference has time to move on and vet a leader,” the former staffer added.

Republicans were stunned by Cantor’s defeat, as was all of Capitol Hill. Cantor had spent part of the day in House leadership meetings and on the floor dealing with a 2015 spending bill, and his staff and allies expressed total confidence that he would win. Cantor’s office had already released a memo outlining the June voting schedule, and his aides were trying to assemble an even longer-range floor schedule.

“Eric Cantor and I have been through a lot together. He’s a good friend and a great leader, and someone I’ve come to rely upon on a daily basis as we make the tough choices that come with governing,” Boehner said in a statement late Tuesday night. “My thoughts are with him and Diana and their kids tonight.” McMorris Rodger also praised Cantor, saying it was an “honor” to work with him.

“I’ve known Eric since I first came to Congress, and he’s been a great friend and colleague. It is a true honor serving with him — as a leader for both the people of Virginia and America. My thoughts are with Eric, Diana, and their family,” she said.

When the news broke on Tuesday evening, House members were still in the Capitol for a series of evening votes. The results began trickling in showing Cantor losing, which led to the unthinkable question, “What if Cantor loses? Cantor’s loss could also dramatically alter the Republican legislative agenda for the next five months. Cantor had been scrambling to craft GOP health care bill to replace Obamacare — trying to piece together plans from wide corners of the party that could win support from a majority of Republicans. GOP leadership aides were tentatively planning for a series of health care related votes following the July 4th recess.

If a number of Republican Study Committee members hop into the race, it could raise the prominence of their health care alternative. Scalise launched a push just last month to pressure Cantor to schedule a vote on that bill.

Immigration reform will be another victim of the loss. Cantor was a moderate supporter of Republican plans to overhaul the current system — a point Brat used against him in the race. With such a high-profile sacrifice, it’s likely that even moderate Republicans will back away from reform or risk being labeled amnesty backers.

[novemberslady]

I wish Sugarland would put up Tom DeLay. I’d like him as speaker of the House.

That would be wonderful.