Posted on 05/25/2014 7:05:47 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
The Kremlin's support for armed separatists in eastern Ukraine may come back to haunt it as the chaos fuels terrorism fears and strengthens Ukraine against a pro-Russian satellite state.
Security officials are increasingly worried about instability being exported to Russia from eastern Ukraine. Regional authorities in Rostov and Belgorod are aghast at the prospect of heavily armed gangs roaming the land and wreaking havoc on the Russian side of the border.
Counterterrorism intelligence agencies in particular are worried over the possibility of another Dagestan, albeit with Russian nationalist militants infiltrating fighters and weapons into the Stavropol region, where a shooting war between ethnic Russians and Muslim Dagestanis and Chechens could erupt at any moment. They also fear that an Islamist insurgency may break out in Crimea, since the preconditions are already in place.
The Federal Security Service is further unnerved by the proliferation of heavy weapons in the regions, and the spread of portable surface-to-air missiles and anti-tank missiles is of particular concern.
Most importantly, the strategy is failing to secure Moscow's primary political objective — a Bosnia-type federal structure in Ukraine with a pro-Russian statelet in the east. Armed gangs have destroyed the lure of accession to Russia and consolidated public support for the unified Ukrainian state throughout the Southeast.
Although some still hope to use the unrest in Donbass as leverage in future bargaining with the elected Ukrainian president, others warn that it could lead to new Western economic sanctions. In any case, it will not get Moscow veto power over Kiev's foreign and security policy, although there will be a meaningful devolution of authority to the regions, including a special status for the Russian language.
Moscow will have less political influence in Ukraine as pro-Russian forces are now marginalized. The Party of Regions and the Communist Party are effectively dead and may fail to get into the new Ukrainian parliament. Plans to launch a new pro-Russian party in the east that could have a lock on Ukrainian politics, vetoing accession to the European Union or NATO, have foundered so far.
Political strategists are worried that the state-controlled media's overwhelming support for the "warlords of Donbass" may eventually hurt Putin's street credibility as a protector of Russians in foreign lands. The Kremlin distancing itself from the pro-Russian separatists and withdrawing military units from the Ukrainian border could spark the militants' rapid capture or destruction by Ukrainian forces, angering hard-core Russian nationalists and causing them to break with the new pro-Putin majority.
Still, this distancing may be necessary. Russia's diplomats are not exactly thrilled with negotiating on behalf of a few unsavory characters and soldiers of fortune. They worry that support for warlordism in eastern Ukraine undermines Russia's arguments for the"legitimacy of self-determination in Crimea. It also makes any future discussion with Kiev about the benefits of the "Eurasian integration" untenable.
Indeed, It is hard to see why Putin, a stickler for order and stability, has responded to Ukraine's revolution by promoting armed chaos and Somali-type warlordism. It seems to be an odd instrument of influence and shows that revolutions and street power are bad for your health.
The risk of a serious blowback into Russia is forcing Moscow to rethink the wisdom of continued support for the proxies in Donbass. The precedents of armed men storming government buildings and holding bogus referenda on independence are too uncomfortable for the Kremlin to keep promoting for long. It is time to change the game.
If you're gonna be a Nazi and, particularly if you're gonna be a Nazi and try to make up for past sins by having a Jewish Führer, have the decency and self respect to try to do better for yourself than a fat piece of **** like George Soros...
Zionazi jooooos are behind this conspiracy to make Russia look bad!
Thanks for the post.. I missed this in all the election news!
Russia doesn’t need Zionazi jooooos to make it look bad,at least as long as they have Putin.
Persecuting Christians, http://brotherhoodnews.com/2014/05/25/bvbid-ukraine-takeover/
Too bad you seem to think that Putin is a savior....and your history is at best dicey.
Our current administration supports all sorts of thugs such a black, brown, cartel, MSM, Education, SWATs, insurers, big Ag etc., etc. and they don’t seem to be effected (or is that infected?) by it.
This is a lesson all powers including us, America can learn. War is unpredictable. In a multi polar world, the first major powers fight loses even if one wins the fight. Look at the Ukraine crisis. The real winner is thousands of miles away, China. China has fashion a strategy call the shield strategy. Before Ukraine China had fashioned three shields to keep her adversaries busy. She supports Iran which keeps US busy in ME, she supports Pakistan which keeps India busy, and to an extent North Korea which keeps Japan and US busy.
Russia picked a fight with US and EU and faces prospects of possible sanctions and embargos. Putin must rely on China to sell Russian gas and raw materials. The deal between China and Russia almost did not happen until Russia relented and agree to sell China more aviation technology for attack helicopters and wide body cargo jets. Something Russia does not really want to do after China in the past copied Russian systems and sell it 1/3 less to Russian customers. Problem is Russia needs China more then China needs them especially after Ukraine. In essense China may have another shield in her strategy, Russia which keeps the US busy in Europe. One thing we can learn from the Chinese strategem is it does not involve the need to deploy troops, spend tons of money on overseas bases and make one look imperial. Even Chinese nation building involves payment in raw materials. We help rebuild Iraq only to have Iraqi gov chose Chinese oil companies to drill in their newly secured fields. Wonder why Ron Paul is popular in US? What the Chinese does is effective and at a fraction of the cost what the US similarly does.
Another example of Chinese state craft is her move to provoke Vietnam. Many of us say they are doing that because the US did not react to Ukraine and it embolden the Chinese. Wrong wrong wrong. Russia also has relationships with Vietnam and had sold them subs and advanced jet fighters. China’s move against Vietnam is creating a situation that forces Russia not to make any future arms deals to Vietnam if Russia does not want to jeopardize the newly agreed energy deal with China. For the near future Vietnam will not get more weapons from Russia.
Russia can now reap what it has sown, bunch of drunken thugs!
Yeah, they aren’t thugs since you’re a Putinista. When they’re terrorize people for Putin, you like them.
Seek help...
Seek truth and stop being a weirdo Putin boot licker.
We must never forget that Russia started WWII ALONG WITH Nazi Germany in Sept. 1939.
They were good pals as per their FRIENDSHIP Russia-Nazi Germany pact....the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact where Russia agreed to give the Nazi German war machine..2 years of food, fuel, war resources etc. to carry out WWII...when Nazi Germany only had about 35 days of War making resources.
See the “Soviet Story”
http://www.sovietstory.com/about-the-film/
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