Posted on 05/19/2014 11:09:25 AM PDT by ckilmer
We are going to find more shale deposits, as will Canada, and the Alaskan and Gulf of Mexico deposits are still waiting to be fully tapped: we can be in the driver’s seat for the next two generations at least, all it takes is a government that doesn’t get in the way—cf. “Cruz.”
P.S. It just occurred to me that the Biblical widow in Elijah’s day had a cruse of oil that never ran out; if we had a Cruz, our oil wouldn’t run out either...
The US is still going to tap into our known oil deposits in AK and on the East and West Coast to maintain our production. This will require some political changes.
The GOP needs to make the case and spell out to the LIV’S how much the RAT policies are costing at the pump.
I still don’t believe in peak oil..there is still a lot of oil in the ground after current techniques are employed. There will be more advances in technology.
Right - but we’re using OPEC’s pricing schedule.
I agree about making the case that leftist policies are costing us at the pump and showing people that. But how do you make that case when Obama has already said his stated goal is to raise our prices to Euro levels, and that the only issue he had with high prices is that they went up too quickly?
Even more hopeless is that if an inexhaustible supply, exceeding all our needs could be found and could all come from on oilfield in a Houston industrial park. These nuts believe that burning oil is going to cause Manhatten and Miami and DC to be under 20 feet of water.
They simply don’t want us using oil. That matters to them even more than the source. And they are successfully brainwashing a generation of children.
It occurred to me, when I read this, that the Democrat coalition is of the very rich and the underclass. The very rich don't mind paying European/Japanese prices for gasoline, and the underclass in urban areas either drive very little or not at all, so they do not care about the price of gasoline, so there is no self-interested incentive to lower oil prices among Democrats in general.
U.S. Imports from Canada of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products ... - EIA
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTIMUSCA1&f=M
“These nuts believe that burning oil is going to cause Manhatten and Miami and DC to be under 20 feet of water.”
Oh my...we all need to get on our knees and pray that this be so! And maybe we can get SF and LA under 20 ft of water too!
For the next 10 years or so, America will likely be the stabilizing factor in the global oil markets because its cheap, reliable oil supply can help offset major production disruptions elsewhere, or even displace some of these more expensive oil sources. Is this a sustainable position? Probably not. According to the Energy Information Administration, after 2020 oil production in the U.S. is expected to slip again as shale output starts to decline. Also, Saudi Arabia is sitting on vast quantities of oil that will likely be in greater need 10-15 years from now than today.
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Disagree here on three points. First,imho US oil production will likely peak out much further north 9.6 million barrels a day—than the EIA predicts. Their prediction is based on the slope Eagle Ford and Baaken production increases flat lining by the end of 2015. Something I don’t disagree with. However, much of the new drilling is taking place in the permian basin where reserves ten times larger than the baaken and eagle ford combined. The slope of production increases in the permian basin has been relatively flat. But sometime next year that slope is going to go parabolic in much the same way that the baaken and eagle ford have been for the last 3 years. There will be as many as five years where the permian basin will enjoy 500k -1 million barrel @ day oil production increases.
I think that EIA is also wrong about sliding US production after 2020. When it comes—it won’t be because of diminished supplies. If anything, US supplies will increase as long as oil prices are north of $90@barrel. Further they are much higher than the EIA’s numbers already. What will slow US production is falling oil prices.
Falling oil prices will come after 2020 because of slowing demand increases and rising supply.
After 2020 or so, an increasing number of countries will have learned to frack which will raise production but also competition from competing transportation fuels like natural gas trains trucks and buses plus electric cars and fuel economy will start to put an crimp on demand. Chevron I think put out a chart a couple months back. They estimated that demand for oil would not peak until 2030. So 2020-2030 will be a transitional period.
Anyhow that’s my WAG.
Some say this. Some say that. We’ll see.
Bakken Formation
http://www.snopes.com/politics/gasoline/bakken.asp
400-Billion Barrel Bakken Oil Field a Myth, says USGS
http://politicalbyline.com/2008/06/400-billion-barrel-bakken-oil-field-a-myth-says-usgs/
Huge Bakken Oil Field A Myth
http://jbscorner.blogspot.com/2008/06/huge-bakken-oil-field-myth.html
You can't show people that because the cost of gasoline in the US is relatively cheap.
If you compare gas prices in the US relative to other nations, we come in at #44 of 55. Norway is #1
If you compare these gas prices as a percent of average income, we come in at #50 of 55 and India is #1. If your income is below average it would be higher but if your income is above average it would be lower.
You can find many such lists on the internet. This one is a couple of years old but the list is in descending order, is priced by the gallon rather than by the liter, and also shows the "pain at the pump" price.
The baaken (which includes three lower levels of the three forks formation) has something like 500 billion barrels of oil IN PLACE. “In place” is the way the oil industry describes total oil underground. However, only about 35 billion barrels of that oil is RECOVERABLE using current technology and at current prices. If the price falls then less oil is RECOVERABLE. If the price rises or the technology improves then more oil is recoverable.
Bakken Formation
http://www.snopes.com/politics/gasoline/bakken.asp
400-Billion Barrel Bakken Oil Field a Myth, says USGS
http://politicalbyline.com/2008/06/400-billion-barrel-bakken-oil-field-a-myth-says-usgs/
Huge Bakken Oil Field A Myth
http://jbscorner.blogspot.com/2008/06/huge-bakken-oil-field-myth.html
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notice the date on these estimates. 2008.
the shale gas revolution had barely got off the ground in 2008 and the shale oil revolution was still in the wings.
In both cases recoverable reserves have steadily gone up every year.
“The U.S. imported approximately 10.6 million barrels per day of petroleum in 2012 from about 80 countries. We exported 3.2 MMbd of crude oil and petroleum products, resulting in net imports (imports minus exports) equaling 7.4 MMbd.
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Here is an EIA graph of net imports of crude oil and petroleum products that runs through january 2014. in January 2014 net imports of of crude oil and petroleum products were 5.54 MMbd
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mttntus2&f=m
So net imports are falling fast—or roughly 1 million barrels a year between 2012 and 2014. The EIA expects oil production rises of each and all of 2014 and 2015 to be at about 1 million barrels a year. http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/archives/May14.pdf
The EIA also expects production increases to flatten out after 2015. But I think steep production rises will occur for a couple more years because of the enormous recoverable reserves in the Permian basin have barely begun to be tapped. Most of the new drilling is occurring in the permian basin. Sometime next year imho production increases from the permian basin will go parabolic as they have for the last three years in the baaken and the eagle ford. So that just as the eagle ford and baaken production increases start to flat line —the permian basin production numbers will explode.
Thank you very much. Very informative! Maybe oil prices will ride long enough to keep the good work going and pay investors well. It’s likely that other countries will continue to add more vehicles/drivers and other consumers. The new demand is not all bad. We just need to make a few improvements to live better with the changes in energy markets.
One good, small change would be that of repealing regulations that favor subsidized alternative energy interests and seek to rob do-it-yourself-ers and small contractors who make superior, low temperature, no-pressure and cleaner burning components for small heating systems. There are no public utilities near me, so some experimentation has been done here. I can link to examples, if you have any interest in such systems.
Interesting. I’ll look up some information on the Permian basin. By the way, I’m in an area on the Rockies, where bipartisan NIMBYs and crooks chased away some good natural gas and uranium exploration projects. Disgusting. They were informed that the projects wouldn’t hurt groundwater, but they refuse such projects on the irrational basis of possible associations between any known existance of proposed projects and the local, mythical property values and tourism.
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