I would like to think that all that George Will says is true but I don’t think it has any juice behind it. George Will is not by any stretch the first to bring this up. This subject has been brought up on FR several times since the SCOTUS ruled ACA was Constitutional as a tax.
Where the origination clause argument breaks down is the dems who controlled the House in 2009 passed a bill that was aimed at providing veteran homeowners tax relief, then the Senate gutted it and inserted ACA into it. Then it was sent back to the House conference where Pelosi ‘deemed it passed’.
In other words a bill involving tax relief or taxes originated in the House, was changed by the Senate and accepted and passed by the House.
So there is no there there.
The case will not go anywhere.
The only way to get rid of Obamacare is to repeal it. And the way to do that is to take the Senate in 2014 with true conservatives and then take the White House in 2016 with a true conservative. This is why the internecine struggle between establishment republicans and Tea Party conservatives is so important because it determines if the USA will be full blown socialist in its future or not.
Origination clause arguments like nullification arguments are distractions and lead nowhere.
It has taken this long for it to wind its way through the courts. Let it play out.
The Senate bill has to be on substantially the same topic. This is a paraphrase. Gutting the Veterans bill, changing the name and totally changing the topic does not meet that test.
It is really hard to say what was going through the Chief Justice’s mind, but if it was: Let the country see how much pain the democrats have inflicted on the country and we will strike it down later; then he was brilliant or very lucky. Given the timing of when it would likely reach the Supreme Court and the unpopularity of the law at that time, I give it an 80% chance of being struck down. I give it a 65% chance of being struck down in the DC court.