The Ukraine Fights Back

JEFFHEAD.COM ^ | May 2, 2014 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

2014 UKRAINE CRISIS - THE UKRAINE FIGTS BACK (5/2/2014)

Part I - Ukrainian Maidan Revolt (February 2014)
Part II - Russia takes the Crimea (March 2014)

In the report, click on any picture for a higher resolution version)

INTRODUCTION:
As documented in Part I and Part II (see the above links) of the Ukrainian Crisis of 2014, the Ukrainian people overthrew their President in February of 2014 and he was forced to flee Kiev and was then impeached by the Ukrinian Parliament. He was moving the Ukraine back towrds Russian influence and had been close to Valdimir Putin, the presidnet of Russi. The Ukrainian people revolted against this and he was deposed. However, Russia, justifying their actyion by calling the ouster of the former President a coup, sent its troops into the Crimea, a province of the Ukraine where the principle Russian warm water naval base was also located. Russia acted to protect its interests in that base and in the Crimea, which had been previously a part of Russia but was ceded to the Ukrain by Nikita Kruschev over 60 years ealrier.

Soon thereafter, a referendum was held in the Crimea and the people of the Crimea, with Russian troops on the ground in the Province, voted to break from the Ukraine and once again be a part of Russia.

There was great feear that Russia would seek to similarly influence, and/or annex other provinces in the southeastern portions of the Urkaine that contained large numbers of ethnic Russians.

Throughout the remainder of March and April there was rising unrest in the southeastern provinces of the Urkaine. Maksed and heavily armed men toook control of several provincial government buildings. pro-Russian demonstrations were held. It was widely felt in western Ukrinae and in the western nations odf the NATO alliance that these fordces at the very least were armed and supported by Russian infiltrators...if not concisting of Russian special forces as well.

while all of this was occurring, a large force of Russian regular military forces, including armor and aircraft began to build on the Ukraine's eastern border.

The United States, Germany, France, the UK and other NATO countries protested. The United States sent the Secretary of State to talk to the Foreign Minister of Russia on several occasions in what developed into a "shuttle diplomacy" effort. Mild economic sanctions were leveled by the United States against specific individuals and a few banks in Russia. The situation remained tense.

The International Monetary Fund made a promise to loan the Ukraine $17 billion dollars, but only on condition that unrest throughout the country, including in the southeast, was quelled. The Ukraine's economy was badly in need of an influx of this type of capitol.

Finally, in the last ten days of April, the Ukraine determined to take action against the individuals who were holding government buildings in various southeastern Ukrainian provinces, and who were setting up roadblocks there, flying the Russian flag.

The Ukrainian Offensive into southeastern Ukraine:
The largest and strongest outpost of dissent and seperatism was in the city of Slovyansk, the administrative center of the Sloviansk Raion district in southeastern Ukraine.

The Ukrainian soldiers overran and removed several roadblock and outlying strong points and the pro-Russian dissidents fell back into the city center.

Inside the city, the seperatists were more heavily barricaded, and prepared to defend those positions with stronger force. The Ukraine moved its armor forward, and began using its own air power,which included SU-27 aircraft, attack helicopters, and assault helicoptersto begin to assault and prepare those positions for attack.

The seperatists had held back weapons to contend with some of the aircraft, particularly the helicopters. At least one, and possibly two were shot down. but the Ukrainian troops continued to press forward, njow engaging in firefights within the coity and they established their own rodablock outside of it.

This offensives appears to be well coordinated and prepared by the Urkainian forces. It is also meeting resistance. Bt over the last six to eight weeks, the urkaine has had time to gather its forces as the unrest built, and as negotiations went on between Russia and the westewrn European powers and the US> Thiose negotiations had led to an agreement between the European Unin, the US< and Russia in mid April that called for the Russian government toi use its influience to have the aremed, pro-Russian seperatists, to remove themselves from the buildings and roadblocks in the southeastern Ukraine, while the EU and the US would urge the Urkaine to show restraint.

After two weeks of the armed seperatists not remving themselves from the government buildings or the roadblocks, the Ukrain had apparently had enough, and began this offensive.

The Russian Buildup on the Ukrainian border.
After the Russian military occupied the Crimea and continued there through the vote for being annexed by Russia, a significant buildup of Russian military began along the southeastern border of the Urkaine and Russia.

This buildup has been well documented, and it has been feared that the Russians were preparing to use almost any pretext to invade southeastern Ukraine and annex several of those provinces the way they had done the Crimea, under the pretect of protecting ethnic Russians.

Te buidup has included Russian aircraft, helicopters, and armor to support large numbers of infantry who are also gathering there, estimated to number anywhere rom forty to eigty thousand troops.

With the ongoing military operationsby Urkaine to restore order in its own provinces, there is now significant concern that Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, will now order his troops to enter the Ukraine to push the Urkainian forces back, claimning the danger to ethnic Russians and that this will lead to two or three other Ukrainian provinces being annexed by Russia.

But there may be something that could give Vladmimir Putin pause.

The NATO Buildup of Forces in Poland and the Baltic:
While all of this has been going on, the United states and its NATO allies, which now include Poland, the Baltic States, and most of Eastern Europe (Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, etc.) Have been steadily building up forces in POland, which borders the Urkaine on oits east.

This includes numerous very modern and potent fighter and strike aircraft and modern refueling tankers and aireborne radar and command and control aircraft.

The US has F-15C Eagles and F-16 Falcons in POland. The UK has deployed Eurofighter Typhoons there. Canada has sent in F-18 Hornets, and France has dep[loyed its very capable Rafael fighters. Poland is adding its own F-16 fighters and Mig-29 fighter/bombers. LArge refueling tankers and E-2 Sentry AWACS aircraft from NATO are also on station.

All of these aircraft are now patroling along POlands eastern frontier, and over the baltic nations as a show of force to Russia.

In addition, the United States is now also deploying its soldiers directly to the Blatic countries and to Poland and they are gathering there and conducting exerices with their respective NATO forces in those countries.

NATO hopes that these forces, and the threat of their use, will deter Vladimir Putin and keep him from invading.

But will they?

Are these forces there to prevent futher incursions into the Urkaine...or are they there as a buffer against Russian threats beyond the Ukraine?

Those are the critical questions now. Clearly, those aircraft could easily support Ukrainian forces in fighting the Russians in southeastern Ukraine if the Russians invade there.

Will that potential be enough to deter Putin? Or will he test that resolve?

This is the question that is likely to be ansered in the following days as the Ukraine fights back and attempts to end the unrest and Russian seperatism that has developed in its southeastern provinces.

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LINKS OF INTEREST:

AMERICA AT THE CROSSROADS OF HISTORY

IF I WERE PRESIDENT, HERE'S WHAT I WOULD DO

[Alamo-Girl]

Thank you for sharing your insights, dear Jeff!