[MrEdd]

You can spew any stupid babbling you want all day long.

What matters here is what the Russians believe.
What the Russians believe is not a secret. Many of the books in the professional reading course for the Marine Corps taught their belief in some detail. At least the books that were on the list in the seventies, eighties, and nineties taught them.

Your theory, or anyone in the west’s theory is entirely irrelevant to what the Russians will do.

The Russians do not care what some western academic thinks.
The Russians do not care what I think.
The Russians do not care what you think.

Not even a tiny bit.

They are going to act in accordance with their established doctrine.

Tell me this, did you personally predict that the Russians were going to send a military force into Ukraine?

[1rudeboy]

Tell me this, did you personally predict that the Russians were going to send a military force into Ukraine?

Dude, I am far from being a military expert, but some of us were laughing about how Putin was waiting to do it after his Olympics.

[Tailgunner Joe]

What matters is not so much what Russians believe. Russian slaves will do what their inhuman KGB master forces them to do. What matters is what Putin believes. Putin believes the collapse of the EVIL EMPIRE was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century. Putin believes that Stalin's mass purges were not as bad as what the USA did in Viet Nam. Putin believes that Russia is islam’s best friend and partner. Putin believes the internet is a CIA plot.

Putin wants to be flattered. He wants to be told that he is smarter, stronger, and more important than he really is.

He can't give up Crimea because it would be too much of an insult to him personally and to his genocidal regime's imaginary greatness.

In the end, Putin is a little man with a serious inferiority complex. His people will pay the price for his hubris and stupidity.