Get Ready For One Of The Worst El Niños Ever

BI ^ | 4-22-2014 | Eric Holthaus

[blam]

Get Ready For One Of The Worst El Niños Ever

Eric Holthaus
April 22, 2014, 11:52 AM

With apologies to Game of Thrones fans, there’s a new climate menace on the prowl: El Niño is coming.

New data released late last week added to the mounting evidence.

To be declared an official El Niño, surface water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean must warm by half a degree Celsius averaged over three months and maintain that level for five consecutive three-month periods. That’s an arbitrary definition, sure, but it gives us the ability to crunch the numbers on weather patterns that tend to associate with El Niños on a global scale.

Statistically, this time of year has the least predictability at any time all year. But peering below the ocean’s surface, water temperatures are already off-the-charts-hot. If that warm water makes it to the surface, the planet could be in line for one of the most intense El Niños ever recorded.

That would be enough to shift weather patterns worldwide and make the next couple of years among the hottest we’ve ever known. Earlier this month I wrote that taking into account current forecasts, El Niño could be the biggest global weather story of 2014. The new data shows that forecast is still on track. And that means El Niño could officially begin in a matter of weeks.

Recently people have been tweeting me questions like: “Will El Niño destroy my family’s avocado plantation in Sweden?” or “Will El Niño finally banish the Eye of Sauron from the drought-stricken Mordor formerly known as Sacramento?”

While the answer to both of those questions is a qualified no, there are some parts of the world that have a relatively predictable weather signal when El Niño rolls around.

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[zeestephen]

Thanks - your response was excellent.

I learn new things every day at Free Republic.

[SandwicheGuy]

And my life was better for it.

I don't think you are alone. And a lot more joined you after year 2000 I reckon.

[Reeses]

Finally, the global warming people are going to get some warm temperatures like they’re always hoping for. I guess they’re happy about this news.

According to the Church of Global Cooling, colder weather causes warming. When it's cooler, less water evaporates creating fewer clouds. This lack of shade leads to higher temperatures. Get your affairs in order, an ice age is a'coming!