Why Putin’s Adventure in Ukraine Is Doomed

The Fiscal Times ^ | 4/16/14 | David Francis

[TangledUpInBlue]

From Russian President Vladimir Putin’s perspective, the plan to annex parts of Ukraine probably goes something like this: take Crimea; ignite Russian nationalism in parts of the country where ties to Moscow run deep; then incite anti-Ukrainian protests in these places and use the protests as an excuse to send Russian troops into eastern Ukraine and annex it -- just as he did in Crimea.

“It is classic Russian foreign policy to try to destabilize a country before it completely takes it over,” said Edward Goldberg, a professor at Baruch College and the New York University Center for Global Affairs. “Russia has always considered Ukraine as a nation culturally and historically connected to it.”

[Always A Marine]

However, your Alex Jones conspiracy nonsense falls flat. What is going on not broad conspiracy but the same power politics and realpolitik that has dominated international relations for some time. Only the relationships have been tilted away from superpower balance of power to multipolar/superpower balance of power.

I don't know anything about Alex Jones, but I do recognize that an historic long term power shift is underway. The Cold War killed one great power and mortally wounded the other; the Soviet Union is dead and gone, and the United States is exhausted and near bankruptcy. But like all government programs, the apparatus and alliances of the victors live on, seeking new purposes to justify their existence and funding. New powers rise under protection of the tired and broke old champion.

Power politics and realpolitik are indeed going on as before, but the roles of its players are in transition. The United States retains the world's greatest military and its reserve currency, but the same was true of Great Britain at the outset of the Great War that sealed its decline. America is pledged to fight on behalf of more countries around the globe than ever before, but our military and financial ability to honor those binding treaty obligations is now questionable at best. The path we are on leads to ruin.

[okie01]

The Cold War killed one great power and mortally wounded the other; the Soviet Union is dead and gone, and the United States is exhausted and near bankruptcy.

The Cold War had nothing to do with the United States being "exhausted and near-bankruptcy".

To blame the Cold War for our current malais is to irresponsibly overlook the past six years.

[Always A Marine]

That is very true, but I would include the last twenty years and not just the last six. Instead of recovering from the indebtedness we incurred to win the Cold War, we spent and borrowed even more and exhausted our military and our creditworthiness with needless wars and out of control social spending. If our countless enemies decide to challenge us at once, we’ll be out of Schlitz.

[MinorityRepublican]

I think the dangerous thing that the West is doing is assuming that our values are universal.

[MinorityRepublican]

[MinorityRepublican]

Don’t be silly, once the Russians and the Americans shoot at each other, it’ll escalate into a nuclear war. Therefore it won’t happen.

[Always A Marine]

I think the dangerous thing that the West is doing is assuming that our values are universal.

That's an excellent point, and I think it's just as dangerous for Americans to assume even that all of the "The West" shares our values. Our historic allies in Europe no longer exist as sovereign nations, only as parts of the bureaucratic entity in Brussels. The world is changing rapidly, and we Americans must reexamine our role in it before we find ourselves fighting someone else's wars.

[okie01]

...but I would include the last twenty years and not just the last six.

True. The rot started with Clinton.

[rbmillerjr]

“Don’t be silly, once the Russians and the Americans shoot at each other, it’ll escalate into a nuclear war. Therefore it won’t happen.”

I actually think it is sillier to think that because of nuclear weapons, there couldn’t be a limited war or scuffle between the Russians and the US.

The very real possibility of a Russian miscalculation in Estonia for example, which it sees as a former “part of its possessions”, and where NATO and the West are obligated to now defend it attacked. In no way, would nuclear weapons prevent that unlikely - but very possible scenario from happening.

Even after the Russians sent troops into Georgia, nobody believed we’d be looking at Russian special operations and intelligence units actively working inside Ukraine, yet here we are.

[rbmillerjr]

“Our historic allies in Europe no longer exist as sovereign nations, only as parts of the bureaucratic entity in Brussels.”

I think you are smart enough to realize that that is overstated. They are still sovereign nations even though they have ceded some decision-making to the EU. It eventually will fail because at some point nations always act in their best interest.

[MinorityRepublican]

Russia will only invade Estonia if they’re 100% sure that the U.S. wont intervene.

[Always A Marine]

“Our historic allies in Europe no longer exist as sovereign nations, only as parts of the bureaucratic entity in Brussels.” I think you are smart enough to realize that that is overstated. They are still sovereign nations even though they have ceded some decision-making to the EU. It eventually will fail because at some point nations always act in their best interest.

That's what I thought until several British MEPs revealed that the European "Parliament" has no authority whatsoever to draft or even amend the "legislation" upon which it votes. Instead, it exists only to rubber stamp the legislation which is drafted and presented by the appointed (i.e. unelected) EU leadership and bureaucracy. Though the actual numbers are disputed between pro-independence and pro-EU advocates, a significant portion of new laws in EU member countries are binding directives from Brussels.

Will the EU fail? I used to believe it would, either from currency failure or several key nations ultimately regaining their senses. But now I think it is a race between collapse and an irreversible consolidation of power in Brussels. Given Europe's proclivity to follow strongmen, I believe the latter is most likely.