I believe Ukraine can say goodbye to their Eastern and Southern provinces, if not the whole nation, entirely. Losing their center of industry (Kharkov), shipping (Odessa), and food processing (Izmail) would be crushing to any hopes of true independence.
The very idea that nations should be comprised of contiguous peoples after such a long history of alternating waves of conquest and revolt is a pipe dream. No matter what happens, somebody winds up oppressed. It is the human condition.