This Is The Most Plausible Theory For The Plane's Disappearance We've Heard Yet...

BI ^ | 3-18-2014 | Henry Blodget

[blam]

This Is The Most Plausible Theory For The Plane's Disappearance We've Heard Yet...

Henry Blodget
Mar. 18, 2014, 6:01 AM

Over the past 10 days, investigators and observers have come up with ever-more elaborate theories for what might have happened to Malaysia Airways Flight 370.

What was originally assumed to have been a tragic mid-air explosion or mechanical problem soon bloomed into a criminal investigation of a meticulously planned hijacking, commandeering, or otherwise stealing of a fully loaded commercial 777 in mid-air.

The perpetrator(s) knew the plane so well, one of the latest theories goes, that they climbed through a trap door outside the cockpit to reach circuit breakers necessary to shut down one of the communication's systems. They shut down the transponder. They made the plane disappear and fooled the world into thinking it had crashed. They flew one of two "arcs" for 7 hours — a "southern route" over the Indian Ocean on which, eventually, they crashed the plane in the ocean in a complicated suicide, and a "northern route" in which, perhaps, they slipped past land-based radar, flew to a destination in central Asia, and landed, perhaps preparing to use the plane again soon for a terrorist attack or other mission. This latter plan was executed so flawlessly, one observer theorized, that Flight 370 slipped in behind another commercial airliner for much of the route so as not to be noticed on radar.

The pilots' houses have been searched. Terrorist connections have been probed. Passenger backgrounds and possible motives have been scrutinized. And still, 10 days after the plane disappeared, we know nothing.

Perhaps that's because we're overthinking it.

A few days ago, a former pilot named Chris Goodfellow articulated an entirely different theory on Google+.

This theory fits the facts.

And it's the most plausible yet:

(snip)

[Mashood]

For some inexplicable reason, I keep thinking “Canadians”... something to do with Canadians.

[don-o]

I am an Airbus captain at a major US airline.

How many cockpit fires have you dealt with?

[wintertime]

Wouldn't one of the passengers phoned or texted home to reporting there was smoke?

[WildHighlander57]

Scratch the 45k feet... I didn’t see don-o’s post till now (good timing, don-o)

[bill1952]

I know. I am also a flight instructor.

[woollyone]

“Why no “MAYDAY” call? Perhaps it was given and no one heard it?”

...if the fire began in the communication circuits they could have burnt up and unable to transmit.

My guess is that the transponder may have gone dark on the instrument panel as the first hint of problems. By now the circuits are frying and radio is inop. First is realized and flight is neglected as an attempt to fight the fire. The plane climbs and stalls, plunging to lower altitude where control is regained and plane is turned around for emergency landing. Autopilot is set to continue battling fire. In short order, crew and passengers overcome by toxic fumes. Aircraft continues flying on autopilot, maybe even losing altitude the entire time until it descends into the Indian ocean.

[Uncle Chip]

The Aussies are searching hard off the southwest coast of Kangarooland for probably two incontrovertible reasons:

1] Pings between plane and satellite show it a certain distance from the satellite during 5 hourly pings -- the last one painting the infamous north-south arc from Kazakistan to west coast of Australia.

The previous 4 hourly pings probably show it at a similar distance and that it did not cut through that arc on its way to Pakistan but was somewhere along that arc for some 5 hours.

2] The pings indicate that the landing gear did not go down -- thus a more than likely a ditch into the ocean of the southern arc.

[diogenes ghost]

"The oil rig worker..."

Aircraft was never closer than 150 miles from him. Curvature of earth would not allow him to see it at 35,000.

[Ronald_Magnus]

"Why would the Captain NOT radio “Smoke in the cabin”?" Exactly. Unless the communications were knocked out, I believe this radio call would be made. It would take 2 seconds. Also, we can't ignore the fact that the pilot was a huge supporter of the main opposition leader who had been sentenced to 15 years. He had an ax to grind with the Malaysian government, the same government that owns Malaysian Airlines. Here he is wearing a t-shirt saying "Democracy is Dead".

[ltc8k6]

9M-MRO did not use oxygen generators for the passengers. It had the optional bottled system for the passengers.

[don-o]

Scratch the 45k feet... I didn’t see don-o’s post till now (good timing, don-o)

I have no idea. Every "expert" I hear comes with his own set of facts. Same segment on bbc said that it flew for hours at 5k feet.

[ltc8k6]

The turn that diverted the missing Malaysian Airlines plane off its flight path was programmed into the aircraft’s computer navigation system, probably by someone in the cockpit, the New York Times reported.

That reinforces the increasing belief among investigators that the aircraft was deliberately diverted, the newspaper said in a report late Monday, quoting US officials.

Rather than manually operating the plane’s controls, whoever altered Flight 370’s path typed seven or eight keystrokes into a computer situated between the captain and the co-pilot, according to officials.

***

The Times said the changes made to the plane’s direction through the Flight Management System were reported back to a maintenance base by ACARS, according to an American official.

This showed the reprogramming happened before the ACARS stopped working, at about the same time that oral radio contact was lost and the airplane’s transponder also stopped. This fuels suspicions that foul play was involved in the plane’s disappearance.

http://news.yahoo.com/malaysia-planes-flight-path-changed-cockpit-computer-062047053.html

[don-o]

pilot was a huge supporter of the main opposition leader who had been sentenced to 15 years.

But, if he was staging a protest over this, a vital part would have been to let that be known in no uncertain terms. Suicidal, murderous fanatics are known to take advantage of the attention their rampages allow in order to get their grievances aired. This guy did not do that.

[hoosiermama]

Overshot the runway and attempting to turn back? Or just faulty devices from burned wires sending out faulty messages

[Dr. Ursus]

Would the pilots has to look up the new way point,or would it be easier to contact ATC for a vector?

[Ronald_Magnus]

“But, if he was staging a protest over this, a vital part would have been to let that be known in no uncertain terms. Suicidal, murderous fanatics are known to take advantage of the attention their rampages allow in order to get their grievances aired. This guy did not do that. “

Good point. Maybe he’s instructed someone to release a rant video he’d made earlier in the coming days or weeks.

[pieceofthepuzzle]

“How might smoke from the burning tyre enter the cockpit and cabin if the cockpit and cabin are pressurised, and the landing gear bay is not?”

Outstanding point. Unless I'm missing something here, this would seem to me to dismiss the tire theory.

That would leave us with an electrical fire in the cockpit, and raise again the questions that have been asked already:

Is there a fire suppression system on board?

How much redundancy is there in the circuitry (e.g. could a fire in one location knockout everything?

If the answer is yes, why are these huge planes built in this manner (such that an electrical fire in one location disables all communication with the plane)?

Why wouldn't the fire just rage on and take out everything - such that there would not be an additional several hours of flight?

It was reported that the new flight path was entered into the computer. Is this how a rapid change in course would be handled in an emergency?

If the cockpit of one of these huge planes is disabled, do the flight attendants have any means to communicate with the ground (assuming that not everyone was disabled within a short time frame)?

How does autopilot work? Does it get feedback on location from GPS satellites etc? If so, would there be no record of this - if the plane flew on with autopilot?

[Lou L]

smoke began filling the cockpit, perhaps from a tire on the front landing gear that had ignited on takeoff. The captain immediately did exactly what he had been trained to do: Turn the plane toward the closest airport

If the front tire ignited after takeoff, wouldn't the closest airport be right behind them? That is, the airport from which they just took off?

[Ditter]

He doesn’t say anything about the plane going to to 40,000+ feet and then coming down. At the first whiff of smoke the passengers are going to go nuts and start calling people on their cell phones but that didn’t happen.

[MortMan]

OK - But consider that the switch would need to be at least doubly redundant, with self-diagnostic capabilities that disallow latent failure (which technically isn’t possible - risk of latent failure can be reduced, but elimination of failure isn’t possible).

The pilot would still have to decide to actuate the system, which is in itself a distress call, and would still fall behind the priorities of flying the plane and aiming it forward safely. If the system were made automatic, then the response system would be overwhelmed with inadvertent activations (such as forgetting to reset the timer, if that’s the basis).

A highjacked aircraft wouldn’t see the system used, to be sure.

And the system would have nothing to do whatsoever with the safe operation of the aircraft, so valuable cockpit real estate and valuable aircraft weight/space would be soaked up for a system that doesn’t help the plane fly and land safely.

I’d hate to write the system requirements for the “mayday switch” - they would be a mess!