His odds don’t add up:
Current whereabouts:
At the bottom of the Indian Ocean - 95%
Parked at a makeshift landing strip 15%
Hidden in a hangar inside a rogue nation 5%
Common core math rounding?
Better, his odds don’t account for closer airfields. I concur with his fuel statement, just not how long the plane would have flown at reduced altitude.
The map based on the engine data ‘ping’ is very curious...
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/17/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-flight.html?hp&_r=1
That is where I stopped reading this expert analysis.
These calculations may have come from individual probability formulas for each scenario presented (and perhaps others). The calculations therefore are each dependent on the accuracy, quantity, and type of distribution of existing or hypothetical data, etc. There may also be many unknown, unknowns. These calculations may not sum to 100% unless combined into one formula equaling 100%. Still would be subject to a variety of variability’s.
Somewhere where Islamic Terrorists are in control - 98%