The new regime is reliant on the same corrupt figures as Yanukovych did. Its not a good sign. That Kiev is serious about economic and democratic reform.
To people in Eastern Ukraine, its a different gang of thieves parachuting into office to benefit themselves. And that only compounds its legitimacy crisis. I’m not sure Western backing of Kiev can cure it since the West is perceived to be openly anti-Russian and not a neutral party to a complex domestic dispute.
Its possible the Crimean political earthquake will spread to restive regions of the country. And Kiev can’t use force to assert its authority over them in order not to provoke Russian intervention.
What’s a likely denounement is the Ukrainian state in its current form can’t work. The best thing we could hope for is an outcome akin to the Velvet Divorce between the Czech and Slovak units of what was then Czechoslovakia. If not, it could either lead to an enfeebled Ukrainian state or a bloody outcome.
As far as we know, this crisis is from over.
Yes. It’s been a long time coming. Going to be a long time before the dawn.