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Plz see my Post #69.

The polls are just a snapshot. Based largely on the fact that McConnell is going after Grimes just as hard as he is Bevins, driving her negatives up. They don't take into account a multi-month campaign where Bevins will have to go it alone (really think that after being defeated McConnell, the KY state GOP and the national GOP will get behind him?) against a strong KY state Dem machine and a Dem candidate who has already run and won a statewide election. AND, thanks to her family political history in the state has really strong ties to the coal-producing and rural areas of the state that Bevins lacks.

I've seen this particular dance before. Indiana, last cycle, where an imperfect but still tolerable (if barely) sitting GOP Senator was primaried out and his "sure thing" replacement (according to all the posts about Mourdock around here at the time) ended up getting defeated in the general election.