Cites, please.
Look up the final report of TWA 800. I have it at work, I’ll have to send it to myself as the work system don’t allow Freerepublic. I can look but not post.
From personal experience I can tell you that it would be impossible to see any type of shoulder fired missile unless you are about a mile away. The only way we see rocket launches are on a perfect day with no clouds. Keep in mind that most missiles are not at boost phase all the way to the target. Motor burn out is in seconds and momentum takes care of the rest. A big rocket like an Atlas or Delta is in boost phase until it’s too small to see with the naked eye.
Also keep in mind almost all air defense missile use propellant that reduces the visual signature. You want to hide the missile from the aircraft you are trying to shoot down. It makes no sense to advertise your position with a smoke trail or a welding arc (this is what a rocket exhaust looks like even in bright sunshine) Most civilians would not know what an air defense missile signature looks like. I have seen almost a hundred launches and none have looked like flares.