Long long ago, in a thread far, far away (ok, in a thread a few days ago that I’ve lost track of), someone was suggesting that the EU / Ukraine “association” deal would benefit Saudi Arabia greatly, which would lead to increased funding of terrorism. Now, the Saudis (and Iran and Qatar) DO have huge gas reserves, so I assume the poster was talking about some sort of immense pipeline project to follow up the deal, which would then give Europe an alternative to Russian gas.
It goes without saying that if the pipeline network could also tie into the Ukraine’s pipelines, then Russia’s stranglehold on the Ukraine would also be broken.
However: For one thing, to wean Europe off the Russian gas “teat”, this would literally be the “Mother of all pipeline projects”, with huge security concerns to follow. For another, it appears the Saudis will be doing well in the next 10 years to simply supply their own internal consumption of natural gas.
http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=SA
Put simply, it’s hard for me to see how the Ukraine leaning toward the EU benefits radical Muslims anytime soon, if ever.
On the other hand, and I’m no expert, it DOES seem to me that for the Ukraine to depend on the EU for financial “support” is sort of a “lesser of the evils”, and not by a whole lot.
After reading the Wikipedia article* on the Ukraine’s economy (probably flawed info., but not a bad introduction overall?) I see a country with tremendous potential, but badly encumbered by corruption and the oligarch system. The Ukraine does not need the EU “association” for economic success, it needs to take an independent course, (somehow) enact and enforce very harsh penalties for corruption, enact more (internal) free market reforms, and “let ‘er rip.”
Last, I would note that the Ukraine has everything it needs to arm and defend itself, given a little time and a lot of will.
Am I wrong in any of this?
*BTW, the Wikipedia article should be required reading for anyone commenting in these threads. It’s really quite fascinating.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Ukraine
Energy security, business interests and geopolitics definitely play a part in this conflict. But what I subscribe most readily to, is that this conflict is the latest act of national liberation of Ukraine from Russia. Yes, in 1991 the country became independent, but that wasn’t full independence. There were too many links to Russia, too many decisions that had to be approved by Russia. They called Strategic Partnership, but really, Russia was just holding Ukraine on a short leash. In 2004, there was a brief hope that the two countries would be on equal footing, but because of political immaturity and personal greed, that chance was wasted.
So again in 2014, another chance to leave Moscow’s orbit. Maybe this time around, with this many dead people, it has enough ‘escape velocity’ to do that.
Or maybe it’s doomed forever to have a Russian master.