I hate to say it I think you are so right
And keep an eye on Brazilian weather. 181 cities in Brazil are already rationing water, in some cases as little as 12 litres a day per household (!). Should the drought persist for another (say) month, both coffee and sugar prices will go absolutely mad. Traders should at least have a look at bullish vertical call spreads in both mkts, with sugar having the lower risk by far, but coffee at least holding out the possibility of spectacular gains (>1000% on capital) should the rains stay away.
Best to you,