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I understand what you are getting at, but there is (and has been) an even greater fundamental at work. Not even a monarchy or any other gov’t can stay safely behind its own borders if it has something another powerful nation wants, almost irregardless of their respective locations on the globe. (I’ll repeat my hint: 1853. And... The US was the protagonist.)
You are right, — especially with modern warfare and information infrastructure. I was pointing out probabilities and tendencies.
I thought you meant the (1st) Crimean war in 1853. The US was not involved.