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To: khelus

The GDP is the recession measure isn’t it? Am I remembering that right. 2 quarters of negative GDP growth. (or is it 2 of zero growth or less?)

If they’re making it larger, then we’ve had more recession than being admitted to.


143 posted on 02/21/2014 10:02:55 AM PST by xzins ( Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for victory!)
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To: xzins
The GDP is the recession measure isn’t it? Am I remembering that right. 2 quarters of negative GDP growth. (or is it 2 of zero growth or less?)

If they’re making it larger, then we’ve had more recession than being admitted to.


The GDP = Gross Domestic Product. It is used to measure economic growth or decline.

There has been a change in how a recession is defined. It is no longer two months of negative GDP or growth. Here's the new deal:

Per the BEA:

In general usage, the word recession connotes a marked slippage in economic activity. While gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity, the often-cited identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is not an official designation. The designation of a recession is the province of a committee of experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private non-profit research organization that focuses on understanding the U.S. economy. The NBER recession is a monthly concept that takes account of a number of monthly indicators—such as employment, personal income, and industrial production—as well as quarterly GDP growth. Therefore, while negative GDP growth and recessions closely track each other, the consideration by the NBER of the monthly indicators, especially employment, means that the identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth does not always hold. For information on recession, or business-cycle, dating, see: http://www.nber.org/cycles/jan08bcdc_memo.html. - See more at: http://www.bea.gov/faq/index.cfm?faq_id=485#sthash.cD4PtdJW.dpuf

NBER List of Cycles

The last recession in theory ended in June 2009. That is based upon using jimmied stats.

The following chart shows real GDP calculated using the CPI which represents a declining standard of living in red.

The line in blue represents real GDP calculated using an index of inflation that represents a set standard of living, in other words the CPI stripped of the inflation suppressing enhancements added since the mid 1980's.



If you have any questions or my answer is confusing, feel free to ask. I'll do my best to make my answers clear.
148 posted on 02/21/2014 10:44:20 AM PST by khelus
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