If you have the formula to predict 100% the success or failure of a candidate, please share with us. There is no way to predict this. Our batting average is pretty damn good the past two cycles. The establishment-preferred candidates are far from 100%, either. A lot of the McConnell/Cornyn preferred candidates got trounced. A lot of candidates they campaigned against won handily. Paul, Rubio, Cruz and Lee come to mind immediately, who all were opposed by the leadership in favor of ‘more electable’ candidates.
We’ll win some and lose some as a party and as a conservative movement. Selecting good candidates is obviously important, but defaulting the party favorite is no guarantee of victory and doesn’t even change the odds of picking up a seat.
That ignores what they do in office. We had a 55 seat majority mid-Bush term, and they failed because there were less than three conservatives. We have to grow the conservative caucus or we gain nothing.
You’re correct in pointing out the difficulties in predicting elections. I did not advocate voting for the ‘establishment’ just because they are the ‘establishment. Pick the guy with the most conservative record with a credible chance to win. He may not be as conservative as one would like but it is assured he will be more conservative than the democrat.
“That ignores what they do in office. We had a 55 seat majority mid-Bush term, and they failed because there were less than three conservatives. We have to grow the conservative caucus or we gain nothing.”
Absolutely agreed. Liddell Hart, one of the most insightful writers on strategy, said a successful strategy yields a “better state of peace”. Along those lines replacing a liberal with a slightly conservative candidate improves the senate and is a successful strategy. Strategies with little chance of success are nothing more than wishful thinking.
You will not elect a tea party candidate in the North East. A slightly conservative candidate is about the best you can do. Take the incremental gain and move on. It’s like football, sometimes you have to settle for two yards. Not every play is designed to be a 60 yard touchdown.