Rising GOP star announces Senate bid

CNN ^ | 30 Jan 2014

[Impy]

Henry won (or “won” rather) by an eyelash thanks to a major indie (RINO) candidate and that cockfighting referendum that brought out all the hicks (it passed though). And it wasn’t a POTUS year where GOP turnout would be elevated. “Perfect storm” if there ever was one.

Humphreys was a poor candidate, that’s true. And backing Coburn was definitely the right call at the time.

But I doubt he’d have lost or that he’d have been worse than what Coburn is today. Trying to find old polls and threads I only find one poll, it had him up 41-38 over Carson, I defer if you remember others but still can’t see a Carson lead holding once Tom Dasshole’s face would have been plastered in ads. Many posts from freepers saying Humphreys was a good mayor and a conservative. He did however support several small tax increases which earned him some enmity and which I would frown upon myself.

[fieldmarshaldj]

There’s no way to tell how much better or worse he would’ve been than Coburn. But given how establishment choices drift well to the left, he might’ve been considerably worse. I’m going by memory on the polls, but I do remember Humphreys was faring so poorly that he scared the base straight.

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=21158

This page from OurCampaigns (which unfortunately does not have polls for a Carson-Humphreys matchup) has the discussion from the time, which reflects the concerns. It was curious that Humphreys carried a single county (where there were apparently only 39(!) voters) in the sw corner. He didn’t even carry OK County. I still stand on my opinion that Humphreys very well would’ve lost (narrowly). I do think part of the reason was that the rest of the state resented having a OKC candidate. KY has had a similar problem with Louisville candidates (although Mitch McConnell somewhat broke that model, but he was really Jefferson County).

[Impy]

Coburn sure did nuke his ass in the primary. I guess you could say if he got sh*t kicked that badly by Coburn in a race during which he was originally the front runner, that he may have faltered in the general enough to have lost.

[fieldmarshaldj]

I forgot that Bob Anthony was in the race, the only one of the three that had won statewide. Anthony went nuclear on Humphreys early. Had Coburn not gotten in and the race had solely been between the other two, whomever would've prevailed simply been too damaged for the general (had Anthony won, it's conceivable the Humphreys supporters would've backed Carson or sat out the race or both -- and we've seen that before).

Carson himself had an easy time in the Dem primary (although he did face a statewide officeholder, Carroll Fisher, who would later go to prison, but Fisher got only 8%(!) to Carson's 79%). It's amazing how pristine a candidate he seemed to be, and the Dems probably thought he was the next David Boren.

As it was, Carson still fared well against Coburn. Carson carried the bulk of the eastern & Red River counties along the TX border (Coburn won only a paltry two counties along that border, and one along the eastern border, it also being one of the aforementioned two). Coburn held down Carson's rural advantage and ran up decent margins in the urban areas (which ironically was supposed to be Humphreys' initial advantage -- the difference being that Humphreys would've lost those rural counties to Carson in a landslide). As it was, Coburn won with just 52.8%. Carson got 41% and a Libertarian lady took 6%. In 2010, Coburn carried every county.

[Impy]

(although he did face a statewide officeholder, Carroll Fisher, who would later go to prison, but Fisher got only 8%(!) to Carson's 79%).

Dayum!

[Impy]

I’m thinking Fisher must have already been in the hot water that caused him to resign in September 2004 ahead of being impeached when he lost that primary (which was just 2 months earlier in July) otherwise he would have done better than 8%.

[yongin]

denny hastert didn t want coburn as senator because coburn won’t always vote for hastert pork projects. as for rove, he is all about using govt to enrich his corporate donors. the gop-e would rather be facebook friends with mark zuckerberg than tea party groups.

[Impy]

Hastert was pond scum. He and Bush, what a pair they made.