STOP GLOBAL WARMING NOW!!
Posted on 12/31/2013 7:29:24 AM PST by Abathar
Cloud impact on climate sensitivity unveiled
Global average temperatures will rise at least 4°C by 2100 and potentially more than 8°C by 2200 if carbon dioxide emissions are not reduced according to new research published in Nature. Scientists found global climate is more sensitive to carbon dioxide than most previous estimates.
The research also appears to solve one of the great unknowns of climate sensitivity, the role of cloud formation and whether this will have a positive or negative effect on global warming.
“Our research has shown climate models indicating a low temperature response to a doubling of carbon dioxide from preindustrial times are not reproducing the correct processes that lead to cloud formation," said lead author from the University of New South Wales’ Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science Prof Steven Sherwood.
“When the processes are correct in the climate models the level of climate sensitivity is far higher. Previously, estimates of the sensitivity of global temperature to a doubling of carbon dioxide ranged from 1.5°C to 5°C. This new research takes away the lower end of climate sensitivity estimates, meaning that global average temperatures will increase by 3°C to 5°C with a doubling of carbon dioxide."
The key to this narrower but much higher estimate can be found in the real world observations around the role of water vapour in cloud formation.
Observations show when water vapour is taken up by the atmosphere through evaporation, the updraughts can either rise to 15 km to form clouds that produce heavy rains or rise just a few kilometres before returning to the surface without forming rain clouds.
When updraughts rise only a few kilometres they reduce total cloud cover because they pull more vapour away from the higher cloud forming regions.
However water vapour is not pulled away from cloud forming regions when only deep 15km updraughts are present.
The researchers found climate models that show a low global temperature response to carbon dioxide do not include enough of this lower-level water vapour process. Instead they simulate nearly all updraughts as rising to 15 km and forming clouds.
When only the deeper updraughts are present in climate models, more clouds form and there is an increased reflection of sunlight. Consequently the global climate in these models becomes less sensitive in its response to atmospheric carbon dioxide.
However, real world observations show this behaviour is wrong.
When the processes in climate models are corrected to match the observations in the real world, the models produce cycles that take water vapour to a wider range of heights in the atmosphere, causing fewer clouds to form as the climate warms.
This increases the amount of sunlight and heat entering the atmosphere and, as a result, increases the sensitivity of our climate to carbon dioxide or any other perturbation.
The result is that when water vapour processes are correctly represented, the sensitivity of the climate to a doubling of carbon dioxide - which will occur in the next 50 years – means we can expect a temperature increase of at least 4°C by 2100.
“Climate sceptics like to criticize climate models for getting things wrong, and we are the first to admit they are not perfect, but what we are finding is that the mistakes are being made by those models which predict less warming, not those that predict more,” said Prof. Sherwood.
“Rises in global average temperatures of this magnitude will have profound impacts on the world and the economies of many countries if we don’t urgently start to curb our emissions.
And our Exhaling is seen by the feds as pollution (CO2). When will they cease
that part and start banning our breathing.
I’m working on a study that will prove that the results of all studies are predetermined.
And where exactly is most of the CO2 being produced from? What percentage of all the CO2 is produced by man?
And both sides of that are trying to ignore and hide negative statistics, fewer and weaker storms and no temperature increase for the last dozen years. The stormists are relying on the increased reporting of storms (and everything else). We hear about every atmospheric disturbance now when only a few years ago we mostly only heard about the ones that affected us locally or nationally. It seems to some that there are a lot more these days.
All climate models have GIGO because of lack of facts to input. They’re attempting to get facts out by not putting facts in.
OK, that does it. Suicide now!
What could possibly go wrong with that…………….?
I call BULLSHIT! Here in the Chicago Area we're having one of our COLDEST Decembers on record. Average daily temperatures through December are on average 20 degrees below normal.
Currently it's 6 degrees. I'd sure like some of that "global warming" they're peddling!!!!
The media has a responsibility to shareholders to make money which happens to coincide nicely with their political leanings and government pressure to promote the catastrophe agenda. I can't blame them really, it starts in schools where they no longer teach critical thinking.
Junk Science Alert!
That's mostly true. It takes a few centuries for warmth to percolate into the deep ocean and up on the other side to release more CO2. In general the charts show about an 800 year lag from warming to more CO2.
However the current rise in CO2 is manmade. The simplest explanation is that the oceans used to release more CO2 and still would with warming from the Little Ice Age. Instead the oceans are absorbing CO2 net. There is still release of CO2 from the oceans in various seasons and regions. But mostly the oceans have switched to absorbing.
Looking at the same charts showing the lag from warming to CO2 release, they show about 10 ppm of CO2 released for every degree of warming. We currently have about a 120 ppm rise and we certainly have not had 12 degrees of ocean warming to explain that.
They’ll throw anything they can find at the wall to see what sticks. And when the science no longer supports the politics, find new “science”.
After all, Al Go3re the zine man said it’s “settled science”.
In fact, the atmosphere is now SO sensitive to the increase in CO2 that the temperature has not risen in almost 20 years!
Watts Up With That makes a good point that this individual, Steven Sherwood, is close to being an “anti-scientist”, because his opinion is that “if observations do not support the theory, then the observations are wrong.”
Sherwood uses a genuine straw man argument, that because *one* influence out of many that might explain how the Sun *might* change our weather, doesn’t change much, that *nothing* the Sun does influences our weather.
The same crowd that can’t tell me if I should bring an umbrella to work on Friday is telling me with even more certainty that life on this planet will end 100 years from now if I don’t buy a Prius.
Choom,choom,choom went the climatologists, zing ,zing,zing went the graph.
STOP GLOBAL WARMING NOW!!
Possible 800,000 degrees by 2015!!!
Hurry, rush to your nearest politician and give him ALL your money and Freedom.
Demand that he steal everyone else’s Freedom and money or else we might have more land to grow crops and less people will freeze to death!!!!
End civilization NOW. We should all sit and make no movements (if you move or breath CO2 will go out into the goresphrere), because if our prediction of 800,000 degrees increase turns out to be correct, man's contribution would be .000000000001754000082 degrees C—that is if Scientist ALgore and hockeystick defendant Mann are accidentally right with their Socialist Scam.
Do it for the children!!!!!!”
TRANSLATION FOR THE LAYMAN:
“Even though our computer models have been proven to be crap, we still want you to believe in global warming whether or not temperatures increase.
This way we can fool you no matter what happens.
In other words,
‘Heads we win, tails you lose.’”
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