Sorry, my mistake. You meant in the current polls at the time of his death. Even so, the amount of abuse Goldwater received by the media probably would have tilted things in Kennedy’s favor. It was as prejudiced against conservatives then as it is today. Goldwater was treated as the second coming of Satan by the honorable idiots in the press. And coming out against the civil rights bill ensured that he lost sizable numbers of black voters. In 1960 Nixon got 32% of the black vote. Goldwater only got about 6%.
However, while the press attacked him he was still ahead of Kennedy in the polls of those days. If I remember correctly blacks were not as likely to vote in 1064 Goldwater had a good shot, even Kennedy was worried-that is why he went to Texas.