If the Republicans pick up 5 to 15% of the nonwhite vote they have to get between 36% and 46% to get to 51%. That means Republicans have to get between 52% and 66% of the white vote.
That is as many as two out of three, a daunting prospect in Wyoming much less in rat infested New Jersey.
Of course this breakdown does not account for the Hispanic vote which is generally counted as part of the nonwhite vote and it explains why that tribe, which is growing rapidly in New Jersey, plays such an important part modern politics. Nor does this account for turnout which might be very high among aggrieved white property taxpaying voters in the burbs.
On the other hand, it does not account for Jews which amount to a sizable proportion of the property paying whites in the burbs in Western Essex, Passaic, Bergen County etc. and who traditionally vote Democrat in the 80% range.
Whatever way you slice it, it's tribal analysis.
