I definitely am as skeptical as you that what happened in 1995 has any relevance to today’s situation. Although we can see the libs are using the same tactic they did then, attacking the personalities of Republicans for causing the conflict instead of the substantive issues at play.
I guess we have to also consider the fact that some in the polls who dislike Obamacare are the far left who wanted single payer instead. So they are likely to keep backing Obama in a partisan fight.
Many of the people I know complaining about McCainCare would sooner cut off their own nose than vote Republican. So you are right, the polls have to be taken with a grain of salt.
But there is another side to this, as well. How many of the people who “blame” the Republicans do so because that was the only reasonably close choice given on a particular poll? If I support the shutdown, but then am given a choice as to who to “blame” for the shutdown, which selection do I choose, R or D? Also, if they see the shutdown as bad, how passionate are they about it? What about people who don’t want a shutdown, but are wary of ObamaCare. Will they blame Republicans, but also be somewhat supportive?
Polls, at this point, are somewhat useless data points. The only thing to really take from them is that whoever is paying for the polling probably is looking for a certain outcome, and anyone familiar with polling knows how easy this can be.