>>The ACA isn’t popular, but it is more popular than denying grandma her social security check and...<<
You miss the point of the strategy. Of course people will scream for their benefits, and loudly at that. So, what will they hear from each side?
GOP: Your benefits are all in the bill we passed. All we did is defund Obamacare. The Dems want Obamacare so badly that they’re willing to take away your benefits to get it.
Dems: The GOP is shutting down the government because they don’t like Obamacare.
Public in General: We don’t like Obamacare on balance either. What the hell are you doing, messing with our benefits because of that one lousy issue?
Note that conservative retirees are likely to be much harder on their Dem Congressman, and liberal beneficiaries are mostly represented by Dem Congressman. So who’s going to get the most angry calls from constituents?
You have distilled the issue to its essence. The ACA is not popular but neither are its opponents. The public is fickle and many will turn against those who appear to be using bullying tactics to get their way. Opinion quickly will turn against the insurgents.
The knowledge of civics among Americans is poor, but they instinctively have a sense of fair play and an abiding respect for the democratic process. Any side that appears to supersede the process will be rejected by many. This sentiment will be compounded by the endless stories of woe that will be broadcast by the media, many of which will be authentically disturbing.
The outcome you foresee could be possible if our goal is limited, perhaps a delay of implementation for a year. But an outright defunding will appear to be an overreach to many and voters will be reluctant to reward a group of undemocratic bullies throwing their weight around at the expense of grandmas, orphans, war widow and unemployed vets.
I can assure you that Sen. Cruz does not play as well to the general public as he does to you. His charisma will not change this basic calculus. Follow him into the breach at your peril.