Posted on 09/05/2013 7:02:03 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Nothing concrete, just speculation, but speculation from people who know Boehner well.
Before you pop the champagne, ask yourself: How much of an improvement would Speaker Cantor be?
“He has to say that [he's staying]. He can’t not say that. The minute you say [you're leaving], you’re done,” said one former GOP leadership aide who is part of Boehner’s circle. “Everybody around him thinks this is his last term.”
Despite the effort by Boehner to tamp down speculation that he will depart the House after the 2014 midterms, multiple cooks in Boehner’s kitchen cabinet think the Republican is still strongly considering making his exit just over a year from now.
“I’d be surprised if he did [stay],” said one former senior aide to Boehner, who, like many consulted for this article, spoke on condition of anonymity to protect their relationships. (HuffPost spoke to four top former Boehner aides, two current aides, five former leadership aides close to Boehner’s inner circle, and a GOP operative on familiar terms with his circle.)…
“It’s probably not up to him,” said one GOP operative. “The natural assumption is that he leaves. It’s the overwhelming, working assumption as people are making strategy going into 2015 and 2016.”
Why the suspicion that he’ll quit? Simple: He barely got 218 votes in the last Speaker election, and with excruciating votes upcoming on Syria, immigration, and this fall’s budget/debt ceiling clusterfark, odds are fair that he’ll end up alienating enough tea partiers that it’ll be impossible for him to win re-election among the caucus. He’ll take stock next year and, if the votes aren’t there, he’ll quietly prepare to leave rather than subject himself to a humiliating defeat in January 2015. If the votes are there, one former aide says, he might stick around through 2016 in order to try to nail down a grand bargain on entitlement reform with lame-duck Obama. But what are the odds of that?
So there’s the good news for Boehner-haters — he may well be done next year, to be replaced by Cantor or Jeb Hensarling or Jim Jordan (or Paul Ryan?). The bad news is that the sooner Boehner decides to pull the plug, the less reason he has not to abandon the Hastert Rule. Right now that’s the only thing that’s stopping the Schumer/Rubio amnesty bill from passing the House with overwhelming Democratic support. If Boehner decides he no longer wants to be Speaker, he could decide to bring the bill to the floor, secure a major legislative “achievement” when it passes, and then ride off into the sunset as the media tosses bouquets at him for his conservative-thwarting “reasonableness” and “statesmanship.” In that case, the fact that the House is taking its time to vote on immigration is actually a bad thing because you’d want to dispense with reform before all the budget stuff starts. Once Boehner deals with all that — and especially if he reaches some sort of major compromise with Obama — there’ll be less reason for him to stick to the conservative line. Better to get immigration done now, even if that means killing reform, while he still cares about being Speaker and then tackle budgetary matters.
You are putting the cart before the horse. What makes you think it won’t be Speaker Pelosi? Seriously, what reason are the Republicans giving anyone to motivate them to vote?
Don’t wait. Do it now.
Before we get all excited that Bohener may be going, read this article. The democrats want Boehner to be freed from his “extremists” so he can enact all that the democrats want, with their votes and the moderate-liberal republicans.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/09/john-boehner-may-save-america-after-all.html
John Boehner May Save America After All
John Boehner has sworn up and down that he is going to stay in his job as Speaker of the House past the 2014 elections. Jonathan Ward thinks John Boehner is lying. Based on discussions with “four top former Boehner aides, two current aides, five former leadership aides close to Boehner’s inner circle, and a GOP operative on familiar terms with his circle,” Ward concludes that Boehner is probably headed out the door after the midterm elections. This is possibly the most encouraging political news of the year.
The trouble in Washington is not so much Boehner himself, though he’s no prize, but Boehner’s desire to keep his job. A small minority of the most extreme Republicans in the House have managed to keep Boehner on a leash by threatening to depose him as Speaker if he displeases them. The Republicans hold a narrow enough majority that even an amateur-hour coup came within a handful of votes of deposing Boehner already. If Boehner wants to keep his job, he has to avoid displeasing his extremists, and his extremists are so detached from reality that they insist on wildly unrealistic demands on issues like the debt ceiling and Obamacare.
But if Boehner feels liberated to flee the House, then suddenly all sorts of governing possibilities open up. He can lift the debt ceiling and keep the government running. He could sign immigration reform, even cut a deal on the budget. There’s probably a majority in the House for all these things — it’s just a majority consisting mainly of Democrats along with a handful of Republicans. Boehner could use that majority and then ride off into the sunset to become a lobbyist, enjoy a huge raise, and play a lot more golf.
Usually we associate cashing in on K Street with selling out your principles. In this case, selling out would actually allow Boehner to fulfill his principles. (Or at least his instincts — “principles” may be giving him too much credit.) I’ve long argued that the fanaticism of the House GOP caucus makes it nearly impossible for Boehner to keep his job and avoid disaster. Avoiding disaster and getting a huge payday would make a lot of sense.
What happens if he’s reelected in Ohio and resigns? Does Kasich appoint a successor or is a special election held?
Represenatives are never appointed. The governor would call for an election if there’s a vacancy.
Yeh, prolly no difference but I’m willing to find out.
Why wait?
Let’s make sure its not Cantor, by bending the House members to our will.
Your statement is meaningless as there are, unfortunately, many different definitions of "amensty."
Specifically, what does he support?
Got a link?
It's important that he be defeated by the voters in Ohio. If he can be primaried out, good, if not, patriots should suck it up and vote for the Democrat.
Defeating him would be much, much better for the country.
Might happen.
It is only "meaningless" if you buy the premise that there are "many different definitions of amnesty." Any legislation that allows the lawbreakers to stay and work here, the object of their crime, is amnesty. Rubio, Ryan, McCain, Graham, et. al., have tried to change the meaning of amnesty to fool and deceive the uninformed by changing the definition thru the Orwellian use of language.
Gowdy supports amnesty using the true definition of the word. Notice that Gowdy uses the terms of the Left, "undocumented immigrants," who are neither undocumented or immigrants.
Mark Levin scolds Gowdy, Goodlatte for putting ‘DREAMers’ over border security
I agree - hopefully by a TEA PARTY primary challenge
But by the democrat - if need be. At least he will be out as speaker and we should still be able to hold The House.
This is a ruse. Nothing more.
They know he’s radioactive, but they want to push any consequences past the election.
This information is about as reliable as information coming out of Syria, or this White House.
ya know he can’t have any less balls than Boehner.
"In that country, it is necessary from time to time to kill an Admiral, to enourage the others" - Voltaire.
I think we should ENCOURAGE GOP voters to select the democrat if boehner wins a primary
Is he being primaried?
When someone on your own side is defeating you, then you might as well have an enemy replace him because you already have one
Desperation. The RNC fundraising calls constantly hear complaints about Boehner and have trouble raising money. So, they are putting this rumor out to the public, that he will be gone. I say, money when he’s gone, not a dime until then.
Nope.
Amnesty, ObamaCare funding, Syria, Debt Ceiling....
I’m not so sure the GOP is going to hang onto the House
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