Now I'm agonna give my summation, from observations, and knock down some weird theories.
It almost surely suffered a tail strike, certainly by end of rocky end of over-run area, even possibly in water.
Only one heavy strike mark, so landing gear do not appear to have struck rock berm, only centerline (tail).
Aircraft almost certainly did NOT cartwheel.
Aircraft came to rest in a very short distance, indicating sheared mains or sideways sliding.
Post-accident fires can be immediate and violent, or start later and slower, or any combination thereof. Having a post-crash fire after a landing is not unusual, nor is it unusual for the aircraft to be successfully evacuated.
Been some strange theories floating, but tailstrikes (landing short) happen, probably always will.
Often accidents are the result of a chain of small failures that accumulate into a big one. There could be myriad mini-failures here...fatigue, sun-in-the-eyes, wind gust, power loss for whatever reason, control malfunction...who knows. But the end result is a tailstrike that could have turned out much, much worse than it did.
Well, tailsrike is a yes. But as a result of mechanical failure or pilot error? That’s the question.
note: pilot error cause a bird hit an engine at 200 ft and he didn’t react per protocol/training is different than the dork set the gauge wrong. The black box will tell us.