Seems clear now, the pilot landed short of the runaway, causing the aircraft to lose control...
The question now is why?
This page is already listing the airframe as "Written Off."
Off to the right. Looks like it struck the seawall, but we’ll see.
Mr GG2 thinks the fire started from the engine on the right side that is jammed up to the side of the plane. It was probably so hot it started the fire.
He says the wings are pinned so that if you have a hard landing the engine breaks away and slides under the wing and then is left behind. Apparently this engine somehow stayed with the aircraft and set off the fire.
My vote is pilot error.
While long haul flights have extra aircrew, this does not mean they are always fully rested.
Who knows. . .
Pic of debris at the edge of the Bay, well before the runway.
https://twitter.com/NewsBreaker/status/353602322192035840/photo/1
He not only landed short but he hit the rocks in the breakwater with his wheels. The approach for 280 is over water, there is a large section of rock rip-rap that protects the runway threshold from wave damage. The debris field starts right in that rock wall. Not only short but off center to the right of runway center. From what I can see of the lines in the dirt the pilot might not have gotten all his wheels on the asphalt.
That plane took a helluva beating and allowed people to walk away. I notice that the aft pressure bulkhead is intact but that everything is gone behind it. That’s a huge factor in the cabin holding together long enough for the folks to scramble. There’s a note from FAA saying that the pilot was asked to switch runways at a late point-—that might explain the poor runway alignment.
In any case when you see the whole debris field there won’t be much question about the basic circumstance.