Posted on 07/05/2013 11:05:18 AM PDT by thackney
It was with some dismay that I read this morning of the impending end of The Oil Drum, perhaps the leading peak oil blog
due to scarcity of new content caused by a dwindling number of contributors. Despite our best efforts to fill this gap we have not been able to significantly improve the flow of high quality articles.
Because of this and the high expense of running the site, the board has unanimously decided that the best course of action is to convert the site to a static archive of previously published material as of 31st July 2013. We will continue to post articles up to this date. Afterwards any articles will be held as a public archive into the foreseeable future, so that others can continue to learn from the breadth and depth of knowledge published by our many authors, over the 8+ history of this remarkable volunteer effort.
- - - - -
The Oil Drum is the latest victim of the nations ongoing boom in oil and natural gas production. Peak Oil Theory has become, for lack of a better word, unsustainable. Theyve had some very talented, analytical and insightful writers over at The Oil Drum; the names of Gail the Actuary, Robert Rapier, JoulesBurn and Art Berman come to mind.
If I seem to be taking some delight in this development, Im not. I consider the Oil Drum crowd to be compatriots and seekers of the truth of resource supply. The difference may be one of perspective: cup half empty vs. cup half full.
While Ive spent considerable time and effort debunking Peak Oil Theory, I describe myself as something of a Plateau Oiler. What classic (King Hubbert-style) Peak Oil Theory neglects is the powerful effect of economics on the search for resources. Our current boom has sustained because we have had oil prices in the range of $100 per barrel for four years. There is almost a limitless resource base to convert to reserves. In my opinion, we can sustain todays rates from high cost sources like the shale plays and deepwater. I remain skeptical about our ability to sharply increase supply. Im not a cornucopian, and in that sense I share some common ground with the more reasonable Peak Oilers.
And even at todays prices, oil is still a miracle fuel and a bargain. Europeans are willing to pay double and more the U.S. price of gasoline & diesel. Sure, they modify their use somewhat, but they are simply making an economic choice about its use.
Really, I take the end of The Oil Drum as something of a contrary indicator: when the last Peak Oil enthusiast throws in the towel, could calamity be just around the corner?
-— We are running out of energy. -—
Being on the right side of the consensus, means never having to say you’re sorry.
I remember National Geographic, back in the late 70s, solemnly stating that the world would run out of oil by 2000.
Funny.
Peak oil is not a theory as oil production for the U.S. peaked back in 1970 and oil production per capita worldwide peaked back in 1979.
Unfortunately, the “boom” is affected by low energy returns and steep decline curves:
Meanwhile, demand is rising worldwide.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.