Very steep drop. It is a function of the low permeability of the play, which is why they did the horizontal laterals and multi-stage hydraulic fracturing.
I’ve heard some say “horizontal wells have vertical declines”.
It is the reason that a drop in price, and a drop in drilling, won’t take too long to see significant reductions in total production.
I’m reading that the baaken costs come in at about $80@ barrel. With several new technologies including ones that harvest the natural gas for fuel and multiple drills per platform—they may be able to shave $20@ barrel off that in the next year or two. I don’t really know for sure.
You also have to figure that if the recoverable oil in the Baaken keeps growing—then what’s available in the Permian basin...is really off the scales—since its so much bigger and deeper. The permian basin oil may wind up being cheaper too — once the pipelines are put in.