This Whole Ammo Shortage Thing by the Numbers

Ammoland ^ | June 24, 2013 | Alan Korwin

[iowamark]

I haven’t seen anything that suggests foul play of any kind, to me, it’s strictly supply and demand, and it shows you what panic in a market looks like.

Rationing and price spikes are the result of demand far outstripping supply.

Sure, government ammo purchases should give you pause, it’s the reason we’re all armed.

A trusted source provided this:

“Take for example .22LR ammunition. The industry as a whole (all manufacturers combined) is setup to produce 4,200,000,000 (4.2 Billions) .22 LR annually. That is running all the machines, full capacity all the time, all manufacturers together.

There is NOTHING they can do to produce more.

That corresponds to 230,137 cartridge per State per day, which is 460 bricks of 500 .22lr per day per State. That means that if less than 50 people per day in each State are buying 10 bricks of .22, it is enough to dry up the entire supply as it is being manufactured.”

News from ammo makers seems OK too, but it’s right to be wary. Trust but verify. How do you do that?

If you don’t have ammo, you’re stuck in a high market. If you’re like many Americans, you’ll comfortably ride this out until the market corrects.

[Secret Agent Man]

what was the price for them, and how much more are they than what’you used to pay’for them before this whole shortage thing began?

[marktwain]

‘There is NOTHING they can do to produce more. ‘

Thats false. There’s a lot that can be done and at least one firm has reportedly acquired extra mfg space and machinery. We can also import more from extra capacity abroad. The article incorrectly sees the situation as static.

You are correct, of course. What the person should have said, was "There is nothing that a prudent firm can do to increase domestic supply quickly enough to make a significant difference."

That would have been more factual, even if a bit wordy.

It is a good idea to never use absolutes such as "nothing" "everything" "always" "never" and forever, in ordinary discourse. They should be reserved for religious topics.

[KC Burke]

One of the issues:
Wholesale purchases by on-line retailers, to then sell at a premium have to be way up. A large number of the retailers just got in the business in the last five years or so. I would imagine that the purchases by these retailers are fifty times what they were in 2003 a decade ago.

They appear to have the supply and are selling at double the normal price in many cases. If they had 50 percent markup previously, now they are getting triple the markup.

What on-line retailer would not increase his purchases ten fold if he can sell at that number. This makes a big supply demand as those retailers increase inventory ten fold.

The result is a whole new group of middle men that weren’t in the market a decade ago, all of the sudden seeing good profits and then increasing their demand ten fold. Voila, a market shortage spike.

[Georgia Girl 2]

I just shelled out $15.99 for one box of .22 mag yesterday at Bulls Eye. I told Mr. GG2 I think we have enough ammo for awhile. Its getting ridiculous. As soon as the shortage problem goes away prices will come back down.

[3Fingas]

$11.99/box. Before the panic the price would fluctuate between $9.99 and $10.99/box. In Oct and Nov of last year, I did notice that supply was harder to find, especially for .223.

[Sooth2222]

Naturally, you don’t want to spend tons of money building new equipment for a short-term shortage that may be over by the time the new equipment comes on line... but is there any move to increase capacity?

Sure! Easy!

Economics 101. (Let the price float, which is essentially what the online auctions are doing. You can buy all the ammo you want of any caliber right now -- it just won't be cheap.)

Large retailers are mindful of being accused of price gouging, so they are holding the line on price increases -- and so we have a "shortage". But at some price level for 22LR between $0.05/round and $5.00/round the marketplace will be in equilibrium and there will be no shortage. (It should be closer to $0.05 than to $5.00. I just got an e-mail that one of the online retailers is shipping me a brick -- at less than $0.05/round -- only 6 weeks after I ordered it.)

[bgill]

There is NOTHING they can do to produce more.

Hmmm, let's think on that for about a fraction of a second. How about not signing a government contract for ammo and hiring more employees to have the company producing 24/7?

[bgill]

before long the panic will stop and they would be left with idle machinery.

Just wait until we drop all pretense of enforcing the border and amnesty kicks in. All those new "citizens" will be needing ammo.

[yarddog]

Pretense is the only thing we have left on enforcing border control.

[353FMG]

Hopefully criminals will move to liberal/fascist land where the picking will become easier and less risky.

[july4thfreedomfoundation]

About 2 weeks ago, I visited a WalMart here in Maine.

Much to my surprise, there were 40 (forty!) boxes of 9mm ammo in the case, along with one box of .357, one box of .38, and one box of .44. Like your WalMart, there is a three box limit.

A few days later, on my next visit, it was all gone.

[familyop]

The shortage is doing wonders for tourism (little irony there), and with the length of the shortage, firearms sports will decline.

[CapnJack]

You think ammo is hard to find? Try finding primers! It’s like looking for hens teeth!

[Atlas Sneezed]

...look into making primers and how to do it more effectively than current processes. I don’t imagine there’s a lot that bullets can be refined on, but what about casings? What about gunpowder manufacture?

---

Primers are the toughest. I’m watching for primerless ammo in the next generation or two.

Primers are the only component that is truly “explosive, and few companies want to work with mercury fulminate, which has been the ingredient since the 19th century. All those generations, and no one has come up with an alternative to the ugliest of ammo components.

Bullets are easy for the amateur (just melt lead and cast it into molds).

Powder is trickier, but it’s not that hard to enter the market, and there are lots of makers.

Brass casings are just machined/formed parts, using centuries old technology that is easy to do today.

There are just a couple of primer makers out there, and they are all big ammo makers, and sell to all the other ammo makers.

[Charles Martel]

My case order of 22lr from CMP finally got shipped. It only took a couple months.

Are they still stocking standard-velocity only in .22LR?

[Iron Munro]

When (if) the supply and price of ammo returns to ‘normal’ (pre-Obama) levels I don’t expect it to stay there.

Compare the investment return on ammo stockpiled a few years ago with the return on savings accounts or CD’s in the Obama era (negative return when acounting for inflation).

Ammo has been by far the better investment.

The same can also be said for storable food (canned, dried, etc.) and household necessities.

If we survive the Obama era we will be saddled with enormous built in costs on energy, medical care and other wealth redistribution schemes as part of his legacy. So any return to a pre-Obama economy and prices just isn’t going to happen.

Ammo and other supplies and necessities will be increasing in cost for years to come thanks to Obama and his wealth-redistribution scams.

[dangus]

Right... as the price goes up, the supply goes up. But there are discrete mechanisms which allow that. For one, the increased prices fund bringing more manufacturing on line. But of you are a producer, and you believe that the shortage is temporary, you might build far less production capacity than if you knew the prices would continue to support increased production. For all you know, by the time you’ve increased your production capacity, the demand might drop and you’re left with unused equipment.

Look at real estate markets: Occupancy goes over 90% and everyone goes on a construction binge. It takes three years for new office construction to be completed, in some cases (from permit approval to building the office tower). By the time it’s built, there’s a recession. Now you have an emoty office building.

[JoeProBono]

[Elderberry]

This is what I ordered: 419ASVGE .22LR Target Golden Eagle Centurion.

I haven’t gone back to see what they have.

[Atlas Sneezed]

Incidentally, www.gunbot.net is an excellent tool for finding ammo for sale on the net.