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Chris Lehman speaks in generalities but does not provide the information needed to make an informed decision. Moreover, he NEVER defines what he means by China’s “burgeoning” navy. In today’s world, the key ship for any Navy is the aircraft carrier. Let’s compare the US to China and Russia.

As of 2012 when this issue was raised in the Presidential debates, the US had 11 deployable Nuclear aircraft carriers which included 10 Nimitz class carriers and 1 Enterprise Class carrier. The Enterprise has since been retired. However, it will be replaced by the Gerald R. Ford, the first in a new class of carrier which began construction in 2009 and is to be christened in 2013. However, it will not be commissioned until 2016.

Please note that the Russians and Chinese have NO nuclear carriers. That’s correct! Not one. As of today, the Russians have exactly one operational carrier, the “Admiral Kuznetsov”. However, it would be a mistake to say that this ship is in anyway equivalent to any of our carriers. It has had constant repair issues and there are reports that because it has no catapults, it has trouble launching fully loaded fighters. In other words, it can’t really do “force projection”. The Chinese currently have no operational carriers. Their current carrier, the “Liaoning” was originally the Ukranian Varyag, a second ship of the Kuznetsov class. It has been refurbished and is finally doing jet landing and take-off training. However, it is still not operational.

Note: Here is a source that is a little dated but provides info on the problems of the Kuznetsov. http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/1143_5.htm.

I suspect that Chris Lehman already knows these numbers and purposely neglected to provide this information which is unfortunate given that he is the former special assistant for national security affairs to President Reagan from 1983 to 1985.

I have read “reports” that China is currently building 2 new carriers, but have yet to see any satellite photos that confirm this. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/08/29/uk-china-carrier-idUKBRE87R15Z20120829
“Note the quote that satellite analysis of Chinese shipyards show no evidence of construction activity.

Even if Russians and Chinese were to embark on a rapid carrier construction program, it would take at least 3-5 years to build a carrier and another few years for it to be deployable. Please note that neither country has our experience or the facilities (Newport News) to build carriers, so it might require even more time.

Additionally, the Chinese and Russians currently have fewer than 50 carrier capable planes each. These planes would also have to be built and pilots would have to be trained. In short, if we pick a 10 year window, the Russians and Chinese together would still not have even one-third as many carriers as we have. In 15 years, they would still probably not have even half as many. Also, the Chinese will be 2-3 classes behind us in Nuclear carrier construction, i.e., we will already be on our 2nd and 3 class of Nuclear carriers before they have any.

By the way if any of you have the opportunity I highly recommend that you take one of the harbor cruises in Norfolk, VA. It is awesome. You get a chance to see numerous Navy ships including Ticonderoga-Class Cruisers, Arleigh Burke class Missile Destroyers, Los Angeles Class attack submarines, and usually, in the last berth, a Nimitz Class carrier.

The United States has far and away the most powerful Navy in the world. Even if this were not the case, it would be difficult for us to increase our Navy to even 400 ships, much less the 500 that I have seen people suggest. Why is that? The costs are staggering. During our harbor cruise we saw somewhere between 7-9 Ticonderoga-Class Cruisers and Arleigh Burke Destroyers. Our harbor guide threw out a cost of $1.2 billion for each of these ships. (see http://www.navy.mil/navydata/fact_display.asp?cid=4200&tid=800&ct=4 for the Navy’s estimate). Please note that we have 22 cruisers and 62 destroyers in our current fleet.

The build cost for a Nimitz class Carrier is $4.5 billion each. Note that is build or roll-off cost and not the operating cost over the life of the carrier.

I love our military and want us to win any engagement that we have with an enemy force. However, the costs to maintain our present “blue water” Navy is daunting which is why no other country in the world has one. Also, cruise missiles and similar technologies are cheap which means that there are significant issues around the vulnerability of a $6+ billion carrier task force. As voters we need to be educated to help our elected officials determine the best way to spend our tax dollars. Presenting overall numbers without context does not help.