Thanks Netz.
Of course, there’s a back and forth did-they didn’t-they they-did they-didn’t going on.
The Russians are trying to keep Israel from getting more directly involved, and (imo) the Israelis have been bluffing the Russians to keep them worried about when and whether the IDF will behead Assad’s regime. This is a situation where Russia holds almost no cards, and (from the terminology of “The Big Bang Theory”) really hold just a handful of Enchanted Bunny.
The Russians know (in case they didn’t know before) that they can’t trust Assad, can’t trust Iran, and can’t trust the Hizzies — to say nothing of the many thousands of other combatants. They’re not exactly loved in Lebanon, either. Israel is their only option, but unless they can extricate themselves from Assad (IOW, assassinate him as they did their own puppet ruler decades ago in Afghanistan, thus bringing down the entire country on their heads), they can’t make deals with Israel.
Abbas is screwed too, and knows it.
Hamas is screwed too, and knows it.
Israel has also been keeping Zero on their side, and a bit off-balance.
The Hizzies are going to go the way of all flesh, probably sooner rather than later, and Israel’s success in denying the Hizzies those indirect weapons transfers from the NeoSoviet regime has bound the Hizzies even tighter in their role as proxies of Iran. Iran wanted their blunt instrument to have some stuff they otherwise couldn’t get, and the Hizzies wanted it (for somewhat different reasons) and that attempt failed.
A year from now the Hizzies will be worn down from feeding themselves to the guns in Syria, and losing their last grip on power in Lebanon — but only if Assad hangs on. Of course, if Assad goes, the Hizzies (plus the other thugs more recently arrived in Syria from Iran) will be left trying to maintain all-out war against al-Qaeda and everyone else capable of shooting at them, both in Syria and in Lebanon (and for that matter, Israel). The Hizzies can’t leave Syria with their asses whipped, but there’s no way to avoid that, short of a total victory by Assad — and that outcome is wishful thinking.
Iran’s supply lines will be stretched, and Iraq will turn into an inferno. Wouldn’t that be a shame?
This suggests that Israel wouldn’t care if Assad is overthrown.
It also suggests that Israel wouldn’t care if Assad isn’t.
IOW, Israel has options, and they will keep them open until it’s time to exercise one or more of them.
The US has options so long as there are no US boots on the ground.
Everyone else fighting in and around Syria, or aiding and abetting any of the numberless factions in Syria, are screwed. The longer that nation-sized pressure cooker keeps exploding, the better the prospects are for both the US and Israel.
And to all who are screwed in the meantime — screw you.
Thanks Netz.