Even a 4% can be considered decisive given the makeup of demographics of a state. I have not had a chance to fully analyze VA because they report at all the independent city & county levels, but in regards to OH and especially IA, the slight balance is shifting where those states are running fewer and fewer conservative voters.
But as already pointed out, this is an off-election. And the most significant thing is that Obama is NOT on the ballot. Cuccinelli will win Loudon and Prince William going away, and will garner at least 45% in Fairfax which will be more than enough to win the Gov race.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/metro/elections/2009/governor-map.html
In fact here is the map from the 2009 Election, just 1 year after Obama’s big win. His voters don’t seem to come out for the Dem party candidates, as the GOP swept every office in 2009. Will McCauliffe and the Dem slate have an easier go of getting votes than Deeds due to the demographic shift? Unlikely. Maybe he wins Fairfax County, but Loudon & PW will be more than enough to claim the election.
If this Jackson guy is the real deal, then votes will win the Election, not money. The AG seems to be very favorable with the TP, and any attempt to vote FOR people/candidates should be all the motivation conservatives need to come out to the polls.
As for 2016, different ball game, but in 2013, the GOP should dominate VA just like they did in 2009.
I expect the model will continue to be followed here in VA that since 1977 the party in the White House will lose for Governor.
The rule of thumb is that if the Reps can break about even in NoVA, they will win a statewide race. McDonnell did that in 2009, but you are making a major miscalculation if you think that the 2013 race will just be a replay of the 2009 McDonnell-Deeds race.
Turnout: The 2009 turnout of 39.8 percent of the registered voters was the lowest in forty years. Even with all the population growth since 2005, the absolute voter turnout in 2009 (1.97 million) fell below that of four years ago (2.0 million). And the electorate was barely more than half that of 2008 (3.7 million). Astounding.
There will be a higher turnout in 2013 for a number of reasons:
Ken Cuccinelli is a far more polarizing figure than McDonnell. He has been an aggressive, CONSERVATIVE AG taking a number of controversial actions that will be used to get the Dems out in greater numbers.
More Dem voters have been added to the rolls since 2009 thanks to the Obama organization that started right after the 2009 election registering more voters. I can assure you that more Dems will turn out here in NoVA in 2013.
Cuccinelli will not win Loudoun County and Prince William County "going away." He will be fortunate to win 50% of the vote. Cuccinelli underperformed McDonnell in Loudoun, Prince William, and Fairfax Counties. McDonnell actually won Fairfax by about 4,000 votes while Cuccinelli lost it by 12,000. This despite the fact that Ken was a former state senator from Fairfax. In his last race for senator, he won by just a few hundred votes, which was the reason he opted to run for AG.
In fact here is the map from the 2009 Election, just 1 year after Obama’s big win. His voters don’t seem to come out for the Dem party candidates, as the GOP swept every office in 2009. Will McCauliffe and the Dem slate have an easier go of getting votes than Deeds due to the demographic shift? Unlikely. Maybe he wins Fairfax County, but Loudon & PW will be more than enough to claim the election.
In 2012 Obama won Loudoun by 7,000 votes and Prince William by 29,000 votes. Prince William is now more than 50% minority voters. And Obama won Fairfax by 90,000. Cuccinelli may have a shot at Loudoun, but he loses PW and definitely Fairfax.
And you must include the city of Alexandria (Obama won by 32,000) and Arlington County (Obama won by 47,000) in the NoVA numbers. If turnout is any where near normal, the Dems will pick up big numbers in NoVA that will be very difficult to overcome by the rest of the state.
If this Jackson guy is the real deal, then votes will win the Election, not money. The AG seems to be very favorable with the TP, and any attempt to vote FOR people/candidates should be all the motivation conservatives need to come out to the polls.
Jackson is a gadfly candidate who lacks money and an organization. He is not the real deal. He will be running against a Dem candidate who will demolish him. My real concern is that Jackson will be a drag on the rest of the ticket. Ken is strong with the Tea Party, but that may also act as motivation for the Dems to turn out in larger numbers.
This is going to be a close race with turnout being the key. If NoVA Dems turn out in significant numbers, then they will win.
As for 2016, different ball game, but in 2013, the GOP should dominate VA just like they did in 2009.
There will be no domination like 2009. Certainly, no one in the GOP party leadership believes that to be the case. I warned FR in 2008 and 2012 that VA was a purple state and becoming more so each and every year. Any statewide race will be tough for the GOP.