If they rule that the Federal Government has no role in defining marriage, it is left to the States, and if so, to be consistent, than Proposition 8 should be allowed to stand.
Exactly what occurred to me 5 minutes ago. You can’t tell the states to decide the issue and then tell them that their decision on the issue is unconstitutional.
Back when the Court first granted certiorari in these two cases, my prediction was that there would be (1) a 5-4 ruling in the Prop. 8 case that the Constitution doesn't require same-sex marriage, and (2) a 5-4 ruling in the DOMA case that the federal government must recognize any same-sex marriage which is legal in the state where it took place, with Kennedy in the majority in both cases.
“If they rule that the Federal Government has no role in defining marriage, it is left to the States, and if so, to be consistent, than Proposition 8 should be allowed to stand.”
No, I think they’re going to toss out DOMA and the dismiss the Prop 8 case for lack of standing.
CA would get gay marriage, but the bigger question would be avoided for another five years, until another case works its way through the system.